We're finally entering the championship portion of the professional track and field season, and the USATF Outdoor Championships are set to get underway in New York City. The action kicks off this Thursday at Icahn Stadium, and concludes on Sunday.
As is almost always the case, the sprints at this year's U.S. Championships are likely to produce results that can rival those of any global championship - there's just that much high-end depth in the United States across these events.
Though there isn't a traditional World Championship this year - which means the top three finishers at this U.S. Champs aren't fighting for spots on Team USA - there is a new event later this summer called the World Ultimate Championships. This four-day event features a more compact schedule than most global championships and invites athletes based on their world rankings or status as defending World, Olympic, and Diamond League champs.
How this preview works: it runs two pages - the men's events are below on this page, and the women's events are on page 2. Jump between them with the buttons here, or use the page controls at the bottom.
THE MEN'S EVENTSTHE WOMEN'S EVENTS
Five interactive breakdowns on this page - and seven more on the women's page.
Men's 100m
THE HEADLINE A REMATCH OF THE SHOVE-SEEN 'ROUND THE WORLD
THE PLAYERS Kenny Bednarek and Noah Lyles
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 4:15pm on Thursday; semi-finals at 6:40pm on Friday; final at 7:53pm on Friday
About a year ago, at the conclusion of the men's 200m U.S. Championship final, Noah Lyles breezed past Kenny Bednarek to break the tape. In doing so, Lyles netted another U.S. title and set the then-world lead. And he proceeded to stare down Bednarek, who responded in kind with a little shove.
By the generally respectful standards of our sport, this was wild stuff! And it revealed that there was some interpersonal beef simmering beneath the surface of what many figured was a garden variety sports rivalry between two of the world's best short sprinters.
Since then, these two have continued to be some of the most accomplished and dependable sprinters in the world, rarely not finishing at the top of the heap in any race they're entered. As an Olympic 100m champ, Lyles has the edge on paper here. But in a race as technically demanding as the 100m, exceptional execution generally trumps a superior pedigree - Bednarek has to be hoping for a perfectly dialed race and for a slip-up from Lyles, who isn't always the strongest starter.
USATF OUTDOOR CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
MEN'S 100 METERS
Tale of the Tape
Noah
Lyles
Lyles
OLYMPIC 100M CHAMPION
World No. 3
VS
Kenny
Bednarek
Bednarek
REIGNING U.S. 100M CHAMPION
World No. 4
9.79
Paris Olympic final, 2024
PERSONAL BEST
9.79
U.S. final, Eugene, 2025
9.88 ●
Golden Gala Rome, Jun 4
2026 SEASON BEST
9.96
Prefontaine, Jul 4
1248
off his 9.88 in Rome
TOP 2026 WA SCORE
● 1291
off his windy 9.72 in LA
6 ●
HEAD-TO-HEAD WINS
2
Won last 6 ●
2022 to now
CURRENT RUN
Won first 2
both in 2021
3 ●
Olympic gold, world gold and bronze
GLOBAL 100M MEDALS
0
his medals are all 200m and 4x100
29
AGE
27
Every Time They Have Raced
8 head-to-head 100m races since 2021. Tap any race, or press Play.
B
B
L
L
L
L
L
L
Lyles
Bednarek
RACE 1 OF 8 · APR 17, 2021
Tom Jones Memorial Invitational Gainesville, FL
LYLES
10.08
4th
BEDNAREK
10.03
3rd
Bednarek by 0.05 · Series so far: Lyles 0, Bednarek 1
The first meeting of the series.
:arrow_backward: Prev
Play the rivalry
Next :arrow_forward:
About that 2024 "tie": at the Tom Jones Memorial both men were timed in 10.01, and World Athletics lists both as winners. The photo finish separated them by five thousandths of a second in Lyles' favor, so this graphic counts it as a Lyles win: Lyles 6, Bednarek 2.
Wind note: Bednarek's 9.72 at the USATF LA Grand Prix in June came with a +2.4 tailwind, over the legal limit; his legal 2026 best is 9.96. Even so, World Athletics scored that windy run 1291, the best score either man has posted this season.
The schedule: first round Thursday at 4:15pm ET; semifinals Friday at 6:40pm ET; the final Friday at 7:53pm ET.
One more thing: Lyles is doubling in the 100m and 200m. Bednarek is entered only in the 100m, so for him, this race is the whole championship.
Lyles is slated to run the 100m and 200m, whereas Bednarek's only entered in the 100m. So while this may not be a true rematch from last year, we're still getting to see these two square off. Historically, Lyles has had more success over 100m than Bednarek. Bednarek's global medals have all come in the 200m or 4x100m, while Lyles is - despite arguably being a better 200m runner - is, as we mentioned earlier, the Olympic champ in the 100m. That said, both men boast 9.79-second PRs, and both are fierce competitors.
Based purely on career pedigrees, it'd be a surprise if these two didn't make up two-thirds of the podium. But they'll be joined by half a dozen or so 100m men who hope to have something to say about that. Keep an eye on Courtney Lindsay, Max Thomas, Jordan Anthony, Ronnie Baker, Christian Coleman, Brandon Hicklin, Ajani Dwyer, Cameron Crump, and Pjai Austin. All 11 men mentioned have run between 9.88 and 9.99 this season, meaning there will be at least three sub-10 performers who won't even make the final.
Men's 200m
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 2:37pm on Saturday; final at 5:39pm on Sunday
It would essentially take him scratching, false-starting, or forgetting to tie his shoes for Noah Lyles to finish anything short of first in the 200m final. He's the third fastest man ever over the distance and a terrific championship performer. But stranger things have happened, and should Lyles falter, Brandon Hicklin is the best of the rest. Garrett Kaalund and Max Thomas have also run under 20 seconds in 2026.
Men's 400m
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 5:41pm on Friday; final at 3:09pm on Saturday
2024 Olympic champ Quincy Hall headlines the field, but enters with just the eighth fastest seed time. Since his gold medal performance, injuries have kept him relatively quiet, with the exception of a win at last year's Rome Diamond League. If healthy and fit, he's borderline unbeatable here. But those are both big ifs. Chris Bailey has had the strongest 2026 campaign and has the fastest seed time; Khaleb McRae has also posted some solid results. Never sleep on relay stalwarts like Vernon Norwood or Bryce Deadmon, though!
Men's 800m
THE HEADLINE A TALE OF THREE PRODIGIES
THE PLAYERS Cooper Lutkenhaus, Donavan Brazier, and Hobbs Kessler
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 7:02pm on Friday; final at 4:33pm on Sunday
Here at MileSplit we don't toss around the word "wunderkind" lightly. The U.S. tends to churn out a handful of prep athletes each year that would be borderline unbeatable domestically, had they been born in another country. But here, due to our embarrassment of talent riches, they still have to get better as they reach college age and beyond to even get a shot at competing on the world stage.
With all that said, the field in the men's 800m at USAs this year is headlined by three, honest-to-goodness current or former teenage phenoms: Cooper Lutkenhaus, Donavan Brazier, and Hobbs Kessler. Wunderkinds, every last one of them. Yet they all took remarkably different paths to this race.
USATF OUTDOOR CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
MEN'S 800 METERS
Tale of the Tape
Cooper
Lutkenhaus
Lutkenhaus
WORLD INDOOR CHAMPION
World No. 4
VS
Donavan
Brazier
Brazier
REIGNING U.S. CHAMPION
World No. 14
1:42.08 ●
Oslo Diamond League, June 2026
PERSONAL BEST
1:42.16
U.S. final, August 2025
1:42.08 ●
2026 SEASON BEST
1:44.03
Rabat Diamond League, May 31
1
won their Prefontaine duel
HEAD-TO-HEAD FINALS
1
won the 2025 U.S. final
1
World Indoor champion, 2026
GLOBAL GOLDS
1
world champion, Doha 2019
0
second in 2025, at 16
U.S. OUTDOOR TITLES
● 2
2019 and 2025
17
AGE
29
The Two Duels
They have raced twice. It is 1-1. Tap to watch.
The Story Since 2025
The comeback, the rise, and the two times they have collided. Tap a moment, or press Play.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
?
Lutkenhaus
Brazier
MOMENT 1 OF 14 · JUN 7, 2025
Toad Fest Nashville, TN
BRAZIER
1:44.70
1st
Back racing after Achilles surgeries wiped out his 2023 and 2024 entirely: a win at Brentwood Academy, and an early sign the comeback was real.
:arrow_backward: Prev
Play the story
Next :arrow_forward:
The series: they have met in two finals and split them. Brazier took the 2025 U.S. final by 0.11; Lutkenhaus took their Prefontaine duel by 0.24. Sunday is the rubber match, and their personal bests are 0.08 apart.
The record: Michael Granville's national high school record of 1:46.45 stood for 29 years. Lutkenhaus broke it in June 2025 and had it down to 1:42.27 by August.
The comeback: Brazier won the 2019 world title, then did not race at all in 2023 or 2024 after Achilles surgeries. Within a year of returning he was U.S. champion again.
The schedule: first round Friday at 7:02pm ET; the final Sunday at 4:33pm ET. Two rounds, no semifinals.
Lutkenhaus is still in high school, but is using up the last bit of his summer vacation to travel to New York and shoot for his first U.S. outdoor title. Last summer, he shocked the track and field world to qualify for his first global championship at 16 years old. This winter he won the World Indoor Championships in the 800m, and picked up right where he left off outdoors, winning a couple of Diamond League meets before losing to Brandon Miller at Prefontaine. (Miller has scratched from this event.) Lutkenhaus seems to have a ways to go before he reaches his stratospheric ceiling - he took Miller's freshman class 800m record and the next man's American junior record, too - but is he the top man in the field right now?
Brazier is the 2019 World champ over 800m as a 21-year-old. But then injuries struck. He raced sporadically over the next three years, then not at all until 2025, when he showed up at a low-key meet in Tennessee and went 1:44.70. Fans were at first just glad to see him back competing. But the expectations quickly shifted as he shaved over 1.5 seconds from his season best over his next two outings. He wound up winning USAs, before his lack of base caught up to him and he struggled in the rounds at Worlds, failing to make the final. Now, with a longer stretch of consistent training under his belt, he's looking to make it two straight national titles. He's had a quieter season than Miller or Lutkenhaus, but never count out Brazier. Even in a race full of obscene natural ability, he is liable to pop off if everything goes to plan.
Then there's Kessler, the North American U20 record holder in the 1500m. He's still very much a miler by trade - he placed fifth at the 2024 Olympics in the 1500m - but he's also the rare middle-distance man who seems to revel in doubling at championships. That same Olympics, he also competed in the 800m, and though he didn't advance to the final there, it seems the limitation was his tactical know-how and not his fitness or fatigue. Kessler is a legitimate threat despite it not being his primary event - never count out the strength of a miler dropping down in distance after a preliminary round!
Men's 1500m
THE HEADLINE INTRODUCING: A NEW U.S. CHAMP (PROBABLY)
THE PLAYERS Vince Ciattei, Sam Prakel, Simeon Birnbaum, Nathan Green, and Gary Martin
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 5:21pm on Thursday; final at 5:30pm on Saturday
Just to get this out of the way up top, there will be no Cole Hocker, or Yared Nuguse, or Hobbs Kessler, or Jonah Koech, or Cooper Teare in this one. That means that you have to go all the way back to 2019 to dig up a U.S. 1500m champ who will be lining up. (That man, Craig Engels, has a season's best about five seconds off of this year's top seeds... don't count him out entirely - he's a wily veteran and a savvy racer!)
But rather than bemoan the lack of superstars with World Championship or Olympic experience, we're choosing to celebrate that this iteration of the men's 1500m - arguably the most exciting event in track and field at the moment - feels wide open and will almost certainly conclude with somebody standing atop the podium who has never done so before.
There's really two ways this thing can go.
The first is that an established presence taps into their experience at this stage, their perfectly peaking fitness, and the lack of anyone with outdoor global hardware, and sneaks in to secure the win. Names like Vince Ciattei and Sam Prakel fit this bill - stalwarts on the international and domestic 1500m/mile circuit who make just about every final, but historically fall just short of top-three finishes. Ciattei has placed fourth at two Diamond League meets this year, including in Rabat where he lowered his PB to 3:30.90 - the fastest of any man in this field. Prakel's last two outings were an outright win over a solid international field in Ireland and a mile PB in the wake of Josh Kerr's world record in London. Between these two, it's really a toss up.
USATF OUTDOOR CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
MEN'S 1500 METERS
The Vacant Throne
Every recent U.S. champion is missing. Most likely, somebody new gets crowned.
THE CHAMPIONS WHO AREN'T HERE
'19
ENGELS
ENTERED
'21
HOCKER
NOT ENTERED
'22
TEARE
NOT ENTERED
'23
NUGUSE
NOT ENTERED
'24
HOCKER
NOT ENTERED
'25
KOECH
NOT ENTERED
?
'26
?
THIS YEAR
2020: no championships held.
Two Roads to the Crown
Tap a contender - or the crown.
THE STALWARTS
Vince Ciattei
FASTEST MAN IN THE FIELD
Sam Prakel
WON LAST TIME OUT
THE UPSTARTS
Simeon Birnbaum
COLLEGIATE RECORD HOLDER
Gary Martin
FIRST-YEAR BROOKS BEAST
Nathan Green
THE CHAMPIONSHIP RACER
2026: ?
The Crown
SATURDAY, 5:30PM ET
Thu
FIRST ROUND, 5:21PM ET
Sat
FINAL, 5:30PM ET
Two ways it goes: a stalwart finally converts years of finals into a title, or an upstart announces he is more than a great college runner. Either way, in the most exciting event in the sport, there is a high chance somebody climbs the U.S. 1500m podium's top step for the first time.
Meet the contenders
The one who could spoil it: Craig Engels. The 2019 champion is the one former winner entered - his season best sits about five seconds off the top seeds, but he is a wily veteran and a savvy racer. Don't count him out; tap his tile above.
Who's missing: no Cole Hocker, no Yared Nuguse, no Hobbs Kessler, no Jonah Koech, no Cooper Teare - every man who has won this title since 2019.
The schedule: first round Thursday at 5:21pm ET; the final Saturday at 5:30pm ET.
And to complicate matters, there's another possible way this race will be won: by a young upstart looking to announce "hey, I'm not just a great college runner." This is the angle your Simeon Birnbaum, your Gary Martins, and your Nathan Greens will be shooting for. Birnbaum still has NCAA eligibility for the Oregon Ducks and handily won the most recent NCAA 1500m crown, and holds the NCAA record over 1500m - 3:31.69. but what's left in the tank after a long indoor and outdoor season? Martin just wrapped up his collegiate career at the University of Virginia and is now a Brooks Beast. You could ask the same question about Birnbaum as about Martin. He PR'd in the mile and 800m his last two races. But it'll take a lot for him to outclose this field. Green has now been a professional for about a year, and technically has already made a U.S. team (albeit indoors). He's been running great all year and is a notoriously strong championship racer - he's tactically buttoned up, is rarely out of place, and shifts gears well. He doesn't have the most impressive PRs of the bunch, but he may be the favorite by the slimmest of margins.
Men's 3000m steeplechase
THE HEADLINE THE REMARKABLE RISE OF MATT WILKINSON
THE PLAYERS Matt Wilkinson
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 7:12pm on Thursday; final at 4:15pm on Saturday
While the old adage "progress isn't linear" generally holds true across the sporting world, there are occasionally athletes for whom progress very much does appear to be linear. Not to say he hasn't had his ups and downs, or experienced setbacks, but Matt Wilkinson's rise in U.S. men's steepling is about as linear as it gets.
USATF OUTDOOR CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
MEN'S 3000M STEEPLECHASE
The Long Way Up
World No. 8
Matthew Wilkinson
2024 U.S. OLYMPIAN
Minnetonka '17. Carleton '21. Minnesota '23.
9:15.70
HIGH SCHOOL 3200
8:44.01
CARLETON STEEPLE
8:23.69
MINNESOTA STEEPLE
8:09.56
PRO STEEPLE
Season Best by Year
His best 3200m from each high school season, then his best steeplechase from every season since. Tap a season, or press Play.
Minnetonka (3200m)
Carleton
Minnesota
Pro
2026
8:09.56
Personal best
PRO · STEEPLE SEASON BEST · RABAT DIAMOND LEAGUE · WA SCORE 1214
Opened at 8:09.56 in Rabat, a lifetime best, and has four Diamond League starts this season, including fourth in Monaco on July 10.
:arrow_backward: Prev
Play his career
Next :arrow_forward:
The schedule: men's steeplechase first round Thursday at 7:12pm ET; the final Saturday at 4:15pm ET.
Event note: the high school years chart his 3200m; the steeplechase years begin with his first-ever steeple, in March 2018. The 2020 outdoor season was canceled by the pandemic.
One more thing: in September 2013 he finished 214th at the Roy Griak Invitational as a Minnetonka freshman, in 17:50. A decade later he was racing in an Olympic Games.
From the archives: as a Minnetonka senior, he told MileSplit he listened to David Bowie's Space Oddity before every race while reciting his goal splits, a ritual borrowed from the Prefontaine film Without Limits, and that he once dressed as Pre for Halloween. He has since raced seven steeplechases at Pre's home track, Hayward Field, including the Olympic Trials final that put him on Team USA.
And finally: despite a 5% on Rotten Tomatoes, Paul Blart 2 is his favorite movie. "Don't be fooled," he told MileSplit. "It is a fantastic movie."
Rather than burst onto the scene, Wilkinson has made a gradually more compelling and louder case over the years that he's the best steepler in the country. He's ranked number eight in the world, brings an 8:09.58 to the starting line, and across his four steeple races this spring - all on the Diamond League circuit - he hasn't been beaten by a compatriot. He hasn't won a U.S. title in the steeple, but he's extremely well positioned to change that this weekend.
But even with the top mark on the startlist and the strongest resume on the year, Wilkinson's victory is far from assured, thanks to a handful of other athletes. For starters, reigning Olympic silver medalist Kenneth Rooks - he's struggled to find the form he displayed in Paris since then, but you simply don't discount the possibility of things clicking for a man capable of so much. Dan Michalski, James Corrigan, and Bernard Keter have all represented Team USA before. Duncan Hamilton has a way of getting in the mix. And young pros Nathan Mountain, Yasin Sado, Carson Williams, and Parker Stokes are all best considered wildcards, to say nothing of Oregon Duck Benjamin Balazs.
Men's 5000m
THE SCHEDULE final at 5:19pm on Sunday
Three American men have run under 12:50 this year, but only one - Grant Fisher - is lining up here. Fisher is a two-time Olympic bronze medalist, has won a Diamond League 5000m this year, is in the conversation for greatest American distance runner ever, and nobody in the field has a seed time within nine seconds of his. It'll be a shock if Fisher gets beat, but now it's time for the standard caveat - races aren't won on paper. Youngsters like Liam Murphy, Gary Martin, and Dylan Jacobs, milers like Vince Ciattei, Sam Prakel, and slept on distance specialists like Cooper Teare all would love to spoil the party.
Men's 10,000m
THE SCHEDULE final at 8:58pm on Thursday
Much like the 5000m, this feels like Grant Fisher's race to lose... but to an even greater extreme. There are only 14 other men entered, and none of them are currently at Fisher's level. That said, Woody Kincaid is in the field. He's run a respectable 27:20.84 this season - the fastest seed time - so he's in solid condition. But more than anything, even at this late stage of his career, his last 200m is the stuff of legends. As much as Fisher would probably love to treat this thing like a tempo run with a hard final 400m - the easiest U.S. title of his career - he'll have to press from a bit further out to keep Kincaid out of closing distance. Fisher loves to make his move with roughly a mile to go in the 10k. That should be enough.
Men's 110m hurdles
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 1:40pm on Saturday; semi-finals at 4:03pm on Sunday; final at 5:55pm on Sunday
Even without the world record holder and several top athletes lining up, this is an impressively star-studded field. Jamal Britt - who has won four Diamond League races this season - is your headliner. Which is saying something, because the 2025 World champ Cordell Tinch is also in the field. NCAA runner-up Kendrick Smallwood is the second fastest collegiate man ever, and the third entrant here with a sub-13-second seed time. With a 13.04 seeding, Jamar Marshall is the eighth fastest man in the world this year, but just the fourth fastest in this race.
Men's 400m hurdles
THE SCHEDULE first-round at 4:31pm on Saturday; final at 5:03pm on Sunday
For the first time since 2018, the U.S. champ in the men's 400m hurdles won't be Rai Benjamin. In his absence, Caleb Dean becomes the odds on favorite. He's the sixth fastest man in the world in 2026 and placed seventh at Worlds last year. But he's not leaps and bounds better than the next wave of talent in the field. The experienced CJ Allen is an Olympian and regularly mixes it up on the Diamond League circuit. And Chris Robinson finished fourth at World Indoors this year in the flat 400m. Behind these fellas is a host of hungry collegiate hurdlers who would love to cap off a long season with a U.S. title.
Men's high jump
THE SCHEDULE final at 5:45pm on Friday
If there's been a steady presence at the top of the women's high jump in the U.S. for the better part of a decade, the men's event has been defined by a rotating cast of excellent - if occasionally inconsistent - jumpers. This field features the 2024 Olympic silver medalist (Shelby McEwen), the 2023 World Championship bronze medalist (JuVaugh Harrison), the 2024 U20 World champ (Scottie Vines), the 2025 World Indoor fourth-place finisher (Elijah Kosiba), and the 2025 NACAC champ (Tyus Wilson). And it's entirely conceivable none of them will be the winner! Tyson Ritz and Charles McBride lack the pedigrees of the aforementioned jumpers, but have quietly had very nice seasons.
Men's long jump
THE SCHEDULE final at 6:10pm on Thursday
This event feels like the changing of the guard. The field features Marquis Dendy, the 2016 World Indoor champ, William Williams, who placed eighth at Worlds in 2023, and Jarrion Lawson, the 2017 World runner-up. But none of them have shown that sort of form this year. Should any of them turn back the clock, they could nab a U.S. title. But they'll have to outjump a handful of youngsters, and one World champion hurdler, to do so. Cordell Tinch is entered here as well, and in addition to being ranked 10th in the world in the 110m hurdles, he's #13 in the long jump. Tied at #13 with Tinch is Kennedy Stringfellow. And 21-year-old Gregory Foster comes in as the 21st further leaper in the world.
Men's shot put
THE HEADLINE CAN KOVACS BE KING?
THE PLAYERS Joe Kovacs, Jordan Geist, Roger Steen, Adrian Piperi, Payton Otterdahl, and Josh Awotunde
THE SCHEDULE final at 4:40pm on Saturday
Two seemingly contradictory things that are true: Joe Kovacs has won three Olympic silver medals, but hasn't won a U.S. outdoor shot put title in 11 years. That's because his prime has aligned almost perfectly with world record holder Ryan Crouser's.
USATF OUTDOOR CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
MEN'S SHOT PUT
Can Kovacs Be King?
11 years since Joe Kovacs's last U.S. title. The man responsible isn't in the field.
Roger Steen
Adrian Piperi
Joe Kovacs
Jordan Geist
Payton Otterdahl
Josh Awotunde
Where Every Throw Has Landed
All 32 outdoor throws by the six contenders this season, from above. Tap a thrower.
Joe Kovacs
TWO-TIME WORLD CHAMPION
World No. 2
22.58m
2026 OUTDOOR BEST
3
OUTDOOR MEETS
1
THROWS PAST 22M
The 22.58 in Rabat is the second-best throw on Earth this season - and his only trip past 22m in only three outdoor meets. Three Olympic silvers and two world golds since his last U.S. outdoor title in 2015. Do you trust the resume to produce one more bomb when it matters?
Tour the field
Why 11 years? Kovacs's prime has lined up almost perfectly with world record holder Ryan Crouser's - three Olympic silvers, but no U.S. outdoor title since 2015. Crouser is out for the rest of the season with an elbow injury. The door is open.
Chart note: outdoor marks only, each thrower on his own line of the sector. Roger Steen's 2026 best, 22.07m, came indoors in Belgrade - outdoors he has knocked on the 22m arc all season.
The schedule: no qualifying - straight final, Saturday at 4:40pm ET.
Crouser is out for the rest of the season due to an elbow injury. Kovacs is in. And he's having a typically solid year. His 22.58m heave from the Rabat Diamond League meet is the second furthest in the world this season but it's also his only toss past the 22-meter mark.
Jordan Geist's best mark is 10cm back from Kovacs's, but he's been more steady, clearing 22m twice and coming 2cm short of it one additional throw. Geist and Kovacs are the only Americans to have thrown over 22m this outdoor season. Do you focus on Kovacs's decade-plus-long resume of big throws and trust he can get back to nearly 23m when it matters most? Or do you prefer Geist's slight edge in recent consistency, as well as the assumption that he's got a bit more tread on his tires?
Either way, your calculus has to include Roger Steen (two-time World Indoor medalist), Adrian Piperi (World Indoor bronze in 2025), Payton Otterdahl (fourth at the 2024 Olympics), and Josh Awotunde (2022 World bronze medalist), any of whom could prevail as well.
Photo credits: Sam Barnes/Sportsfile, Andy Cheung, Emilee Chinn, Ginnie Coleman, Matthias Hangst, David Lidstrom, Alex Pantling, Christian Petersen, Hannah Peters, Patrick Smith, Lintao Zhang, Chris Swann and Isaac Wasserman/NCAA Photos, AFP, British Athletics, Corbis, Image Photo Agency, NCAA Photos and Sportsfile, all via Getty Images. Additional photos: MileSplit.