Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task.
A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of.
Here, we have to consider Balboa Park, which historically has been a pretty tough course to run on. Last year's winner, Dylan Jacobs, won in 15:19.70 and came off a 13th-place performance at Nike Cross Nationals.
Only 27 runners all-time have broken 15 minutes on the course.
Below, we've compiled some key numbers for the 40 boys runners ahead of Foot Locker Nationals. We've ranked the field's best PR of 2018 first, then included regional times and speed ratings via TullyRunners.com.
Read: Reviewing Key Numbers In Girls Foot Locker Nationals Race
If you're unfamiliar with speed ratings, here's an explainer:
In short, a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, "What would happen if the best teams in the nation all raced at once?" However, these do not predict the outcome of NXN.
So what does this all mean?
The best way to describe speed ratings are that they can be used as seeds heading into a big race. The actual speed ratings will vary from race to race--and often can go up or down a few points based on the race--but these numbers give a composite ability of an athlete.
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The Foot Locker Nationals Boys Field
Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task.
A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of.
