Reviewing Key Numbers In Boys Foot Locker Nationals Race

Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task. 

A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of.

Here, we have to consider Balboa Park, which historically has been a pretty tough course to run on. Last year's winner, Dylan Jacobs, won in 15:19.70 and came off a 13th-place performance at Nike Cross Nationals. 

Only 27 runners all-time have broken 15 minutes on the course. 

Below, we've compiled some key numbers for the 40 boys runners ahead of Foot Locker Nationals. We've ranked the field's best PR of 2018 first, then included regional times and speed ratings via 

Read: Reviewing Key Numbers In Girls Foot Locker Nationals Race

If you're unfamiliar with speed ratings, here's an explainer: 

In short, 
a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, "What would happen if the best teams in the nation all raced at once?" However, these do not predict the outcome of NXN.

So what does this all mean? 

The best way to describe speed ratings are that they can be used as seeds heading into a big race. The actual speed ratings will vary from race to race--and often can go up or down a few points based on the race--but these numbers give a composite ability of an athlete.

Related Links: 

- - - 

The Foot Locker Nationals Boys Field

ranknameschoolPRREgion TimeSeason Best Speed Rating 
1Cole HockerIndianapolis Cathedral (IN)15:00.0016:03.2199
2Jack StanleyMendham (NJ)15:09.3015:30.20194
3Josh MethnerHersey (IL)15:12.1016:17.3194
4Devin HartPt. Pleasant Boro (NJ)14:47.0015:38.40193
5Colin BakerAcademic Magnet (SC)14:48.5315:08193
6Drew BosleyMequon Homestead (WI)14:51.6016:09.2193
7Ares ReadingNiwot (CO)14:52.9016:14.7193
8Evan BishopEast Grand Rapids (MI)15:20.9016:09.7193
9Kashon HarrisonKirtland Central (NM)14:49.5015:33.60192
10Carter SolomonCanton Plymouth (MI)14:59.4016:13.3192
11Lucas AramburuBrookline (MA)15:37.1015:37.10192
12Carter CheesemanFort Worth Christian14:50.7015:04191
13Camren FischerFayetteville (AR)14:50.9015:09191
14William FrankenfeldLong Beach Poly (CA)15:08.5015:34.40191
15Cruz GomezPSJA Memorial (TX)14:48.6615:04190
16Cole BullockChattanooga Red Bank (TN)14:54.0015:10190
17Connor NisbetWilmington Friends (DE)15:00.1015:37.70190
18Noah HibbardArroyo (CA)15:05.3015:37.80190
19Daniel O'BrienLynchburg Episcopal (VA)15:07.6815:07190
20Silas WindersHenry County (TN)15:08.2115:13190
21Jake RenfreeKnoxville Catholic (TN)15:10.5015:10190
22Nick RussellBishop Kelly (ID)15:11.2515:35.30190
23Anthony GroverJSerra Catholic (CA)15:17.8015:37.60190
24Ethan KernYork (IL)15:24.7016:16.9190
25Sam LawlerPittsford-Mendon (NY)15:25.3015:38.60190
26Liam MurphyAllentown (NJ)15:38.2015:38.20190
27Patrick AndersonPittsburgh Mount Lebanon (PA)15:38.6015:38.60190
28Matthew FarrellWindsor Loomis Chaffee (CT)15:38.7015:38.70190
29Mustafe DahirChoate Rosemary Hall (CT)15:39.1015:39.10190
30Richard SturtevantNorthfield Mount Hernon (MA)15:41.3015:41.30190
31Graydon MorrisAledo (TX)14:54.1015:12189
32Connor LivingstonDe La Salle (CA)15:12.4015:43.50189
33Brendan FavazzaClarkston (MI)15:16.1316:19.1189
34Thomas BoydenSkyline (UT)15:23.5015:38.50189
35David VannucchiOnalaska Luther (WI)15:40.6016:18.2189
36Zachary StewartBrighton (MI)15:08.0016:22.7188
37Zachary EriksonIdaho Falls (ID)15:09.4015:48.70188
38David AhlmeyerHendersonville Beech Senior (TN)15:14.7015:14188
39Daniel BauschChugiak (AK)16:24.0015:46.40188
40Jonathan VelascoMission Hills (CA)15:25.0015:48.50187