Reviewing Key Numbers In Girls Foot Locker Nationals Race

Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task. 

A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of. 

Only seven girls have broken 17 minutes on the Balboa Park course all-time, though there's a chance a few more could add to that list on Saturday. The top time came nearly 30 years ago, in 1990, when Melody Fairchild netted a win in 16:39.20 in what then was called the Kinney Cross Country Championships

Below, we've compiled some key numbers for the 40 girls runners ahead of Foot Locker Nationals. We've ranked the field's best PR of 2018 first, then included regional times and speed ratings via 

If you're unfamiliar with speed ratings, here's an explainer: 

In short, 
a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, "What would happen if the best teams in the nation all raced at once?" However, these do not predict the outcome of NXN.

So what does this all mean? 

The best way to describe speed ratings are that they can be used as seeds heading into a big race. The actual speed ratings will vary from race to race--and often can go up or down a few points based on the race--but these numbers give a composite ability of an athlete.

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The Foot Locker Nationals Girls Field

1Grace ConnollyNatick (MA)16:35.3017:27.60156
2London CulbreathMcKinney North (TX)16:36.8617:12153
3Brynn BrownDenton Guyer (TX)16:41.1317:17148
4Ericka VanderlendeRockford (MI)16:43.3018:20.0154
5Hana CatsimanesSan Clemente (CA)16:50.8018:20.7138
6Heidi NielsonKaty Cinco Ranch (TX)16:55.5617:15148
7Emily CovertMinneapolis Washburn16:56.4017:58.3157
8Abby VanderkooiWestern Mich (MI)16:57.3018:15.1151
9Taylor EwertBeavercreek (OH)16:57.9018:08.9157
10Adelyn AckleyHart (MI)17:00.5818:36.2144
11Sydney MasciarelliMarianpolis Prepatory (CT)17:04.0017:12.60161
12Ava PeeplesDallas Lake Highlands (TX)17:07.0317:26145
13Jaden TheisLansing Catholic (MI)17:07.3018:48.6148
14Abby LoveysRandolph (NJ)17:07.4717:49.40150
15Kristin FahyLa Costa Canyon (CA)17:08.5017:52.8148
16Lexy HalladayMountain View (ID)17:08.7318:11.0145
17Allison WilsonMontgomery (TX)17:09.4617:20149
18Grace PingWinona Cotter (MN)17:10.8018:39.4148
19Katelynne HartGlenbard West (IL)17:14.9018:14.0153
20Anna MartinLehi (UT)17:15.0018:06.5146
21Adoette VaughanDallas Hockaday (TX)17:16.0917:21147
22Alex MorrisNaperville North (IL)17:17.4018:49.9152
23Valerie LastraMater Academy (FL)17:17.4817:17148
24Marlee StarliperNorthern (PA)17:17.5017:17.50158
25Riley StewartParker Panthers (CO)17:18.9618:49.0142
26Alyssa HendrixSarasota Riverview (FL)17:24.8017:24146
27Jenna HutchinsJohnson City Science Hill (TN)17:25.8017:25146
28Victoria PattersonDeerfield Prep17:27.0217:27145
29Sarah RoffmanLittleton (MA)17:29.9618:12.10140
30Allie JankeNorth Central (WA)17:36.8017:57.9145
31Kate WiserPomperaug (CT)17:40.0117:52.80147
32Erinn HillNorth Central (WA)17:43.2018:24.1136
33Gabrielle PetersonHealdsburg (CA)17:44.3018:12.4140
34Audrey SuarezMayfield (CA)17:44.7018:18.0138
35Colleen McCandlessGranada (CA)17:47.8018:25.6137
36Olivia MarkezichBear Creek (CA)17:56.6018:21.1137
37Taryn ParksGreencastle-Antrim (PA)17:59.0018:11.20140
38Mary HennellySuffern (NY)18:01.918:07.60142
39Sofie MatsonFalmouth (ME)18:11.3018:11.30140
40Nicole VanasseBasking Ridge Pingry (NJ)18:16.4018:16.40139