Ella Donaghu battling down the stretch en route to beating Allie Ostrander last year. Photo courtesy Gary Paulson.
Girls Race Preview
Flo50 teams: No. 13 Sunset (OR), No. 16 Camas (WA), bubble Bozeman (MT), bubble Billings (MT) (all girls teams)
Flo50 individuals: No. 5 Annie Hill, No. 6 Ella Donaghu, No. 25 Christina Aragon, bubble Ember Stratton
Top ten returning girls: Donaghu, Hill, Bryn Morley, Emma Jenkins, Sophie Cantine, Piper Meuwissen, Hannah Tobiason, Olivia Brooks, Brittany Aquino, Bailee Parker
In a major shift from recent history, the girls race at NXN-NW is significantly more loaded with nationally elite athletes than the boys. Donaghu and Hill are both ranked in the top six nationally, and if Allie Ostrander wins NCAAs next week, Donaghu will have the unusual honor of having being a high school student who has beaten the sitting college champion.
Last year's NXN-NW was the only XC loss of Ostrander's high school career, but that was a wild race with a huge amount of snow on the ground. With clear skies and mild temperatures forecast, much more chalk outcomes are likely this Saturday. In the team battle, #13 Sunset--led by Flo50 bubble member Ember Stratton--and the #16 Camas Papermakers are the favorites. But bubble-sitters Jesuit were only nine points behind Sunset in the 6A race at the Oregon state meet, and Summit's 18:45 five-girl average in 5A was right between Sunset (18:41) and Jesuit (18:53) on the same course on the same day.
It's not just Oregon teams looking to pull upsets this weekend: Montana powerhouses Bozeman and Billings were just sixteen points apart at their state championship, and they're both on the bubble in the Flo50 rankings.
Billings is led by 4:37 miler Christina Aragon, who will be one of the leading contenders for individual qualification to Portland. Aragon, Donaghu, and Hill are the three top-ranked individuals; Donaghu and Hill's teams are not in contention to make nationals, leaving three spots open. If Billings doesn't make it, that likely leaves two spots open. The five favorites for this spot--and I'm certain I'm leaving someone out here who will qualify--are Hannah Tobiason, Olivia Brooks, Taylor Roe, Bryn Morley, and Brittany Aquino. (If Summit qualifies as a team, that crosses off Tobiason and Brooks)
Prediction: 1. Sunset (OR) 2. Camas (WA)
MileSplit's Bryan Deibel will be on the ground in Boise on Saturday! Stay tuned for live and remote coverage.