These past two weeks have seen the country exist in two parallel worlds. Depending on where you are, and when your season started, you are either in 'survive & advance' mode through your qualifiers, or you are leaving it all out on the line at your respective state championships.
The middle of the country, generally, are the ones having their state championships, highlighted by the excellent battles in Utah, Texas, and Colorado. All in all, roughly half of all state meets have happened, and the rankings have withstood those pressures, albeit with some surprise additions in the upper echelons. On the coasts, Mt. SAC served as the final major invitational of the season, while the Northeast was only starting up their local league meets. The next two weeks will round out all state championships, and our ranks will be given a week to rest, as we then ramp up the regional qualifying for both Foot Locker and Nike Cross Nationals.
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This past weekend showed how volatile the top of the rankings can be. Two athletes in the top five continued their undefeated seasons but were each within five seconds of unranked athletes. Does that mean they are vulnerable, or does it mean they can win while saving something in the tank for later in the season?
We've also seen athletes continue to pop up from being unranked all season, finishing mid-pack in major invitationals, to now taking down major names late in the season. Does that mean they are peaking correctly, or was their competition having an off-race?
It doesn't provide much clarity at the top of the rankings, as all of the top 25 athletes have a performance worthy of a 190 speed rating equivalent, or higher. But for those ratings to improve, proven talent has to race proven talent.
This weekend's NXR Heartland will provide the first of those many matchups, and even then, we still might not get the answers we need, as it is again, only a qualifier. Three of the top five will toe the line, led by US #1 Manny Putz, US #2 Juan Gonzalez, and US #5 Robert Mechura. Both Putz and Mechura are on pace with where they were a year ago, while Gonzalez has taken a notable leap by way of his state meet performance.
Until proven otherwise, they are ranked by their finishing order the year before, and that of the national meets, and not of the 2023 Heartland Regional. One year ago, Mechura would win the weekend, but Putz would take the highest finish in December. We expect that same level of volatility once again.
Rounding out the top five are two athletes who have consistently had large margins of victory, and will so again for the foreseeable future, by nature of their local competition. Ty Steorts looks untested in West Virginia, while Joe Barrett much the same in New Jersey. That will change at their respective National Regionals, but those are a few weeks off.
These past two weeks have seen the country exist in two parallel worlds. Depending on where you are, and when your season started, you are either in 'survive & advance' mode through your qualifiers, or you are leaving it all out on the line at your respective state championships.
The middle of the country, generally, are the ones having their state championships, highlighted by the excellent battles in Utah, Texas, and Colorado. All in all, roughly half of all state meets have happened, and the rankings have withstood those pressures, albeit with some surprise additions in the upper echelons. On the coasts, Mt. SAC served as the final major invitational of the season, while the Northeast was only starting up their local league meets. The next two weeks will round out all state championships, and our ranks will be given a week to rest, as we then ramp up the regional qualifying for both Foot Locker and Nike Cross Nationals.
UPDATED: