Teams
Before we talk about how historic the individual race may be, we'll talk about teams...
Niwot.
I could just leave you there, but I'd rather not.
The defending state champs return to Colorado Springs as big-time favorites. They're currently ranked No. 8 in the country.
On paper, Niwot appears capable of dominating, again. Only this time they look even stronger than previous years.
Led by freshman Mia Prok, who'll battle for the individual title as well, the Niwot girls have had all five scoring runners under 19 minutes this season. And they actually have six runners who've broken the mark.
Prok is flanked by Lucca Fulkerson, Madison Shults, Taylor James, Sarah Perkins, and Lex Bullen.
Prok has been a consistent No. 1 for Niwot, while Fulkerson has been a consistent No. 2. The question in reference to how dominate they may be Saturday is with James, who is on the the return from injury. It's frightening to consider that even with James as their No. 4 or 5 runner, they're still that good - keep in mind that two years ago James was the state runner-up as a sophomore.
Recently Niwot cleaned up at the 4A Region 3 Championships, taking the first three spots and tallying 20 points.
Their only notable loss this season came at the Beet Juice Invite, where US No. 4 Valor Christian took the crown by 11 points. Other than that, Niwot has an unblemished record in 4A when running even four of their top-five runners.
Behind Niwot there looks to be a real battle brewing.
Per the usual, Battle Mountain always finds a way to battle their way into the team race.
Elliot Pribramsky is their lone sub-19 runner so far - she's run 18:23. And her low points at State may be the deciding factor between Battle Mountain and a squad like Durango - because the two teams look quite similar 2-5.
Taking Pribarmsky out of the equation, Battle Mountain has a solid 2-5 pack. Lindsey Kiehl has run 19:01 so far this season, and Milaina Almonte has run just 14 seconds behind her. They have five who have run 19:47 or faster, and a sixth who has run 19:48.
Battle Mountain recently took the 4A Region 1 title with 34 points.
Durango appears to have reloaded as well.
They've got a solid 1-2 punch with Willow Lott and Angela McManus, who have run 18:59 and 19:08. Their third runner - Tea Forrest - has run a 19:16, matching up with Battle Mountain's Almonte to the same second. Likewise, Durango has five who have run 19:47 or faster.
Durango recently won the 4A Region 5 title with 25 points.
And then there's the potential Dark Horse, Air Academy.
Like Niwot, they've got a stellar No. 1 in freshman Bethany Michalak - who'll likely battle Prok for the individual title, but we'll get back that...
Michalak is flanked by Ella Chura, who was 15th at State last year, and has run 19:09 this year, while Brooke Moss is their third and final sub-20 runner so far. Air Academy has five who have run 20:16 or faster.
Air Academy recently won the 4A Region 2 title with 38 points.
Now, let's talk about that individual race...
Individuals
One of the most anticipated races of Saturday's State Championships has to be the girl's 4A individual race.
Starring will be perhaps two of the best freshmen to storm Colorado's cross country courses in years.
There's Air Academy's Bethany Michalak, and Niwot's Mia Prok.
It's ironic that it looks like the individual race will be decided between two freshmen, because the girl's 4A race is simply loaded.
The depth of this field cannot be overstated.
So when you consider the possibility that the state title could possibly be taken by not just one freshman, but two, you know we're talking about history in the making.
Michalak and Prok are likely to clash many times on the course over the next four years, and this first competition just so happens to be the 2020 Colorado State Cross Country Championships.
Ok. Let's get into the details...
Michalak and Prok have not raced each other this season, so there is no favorite here. They're 0-0 this cross country season.
Michalak has five consecutive victories in her unblemished season, including a 17:27 personal best, which was run on the State course at the Cheyenne Mountain Stampede.
To add a little emphasis to that last part: Michalak's 17:27 winning time was the second-fastest clocking on the course ever - only behind 2016 national champion Brie Oakley's 17:07. To add to Michalak's ridiculously impressive run, before this year's Cheyenne Mountain Stampede only two had broken 18 minutes on the Penrose course - Oakley, and Katie Rainsberger, who ran 17:39 here in 2015.
Additionally, Michalak has run 17:51 or faster four of five times this season. Her typical margin of victory was over 70 seconds, with her smallest margin being 20 seconds - over 5A's Ava Mitchell at the Peyton XC Invite.
Most recently Michalak won the 4A Region 2 title in 17:51.
Prok has four consecutive victories in her unblemished season, which includes a 17:38 personal best from the Beet Juice Invite.
Prok's most notable victory came in her first race of the season at the Battle Mountain Husky Invitational, where she ran away early from 2019 State runner-up Samantha Blair. Prok won that race by 24 seconds. She's won every race since, typically over teammate, Fulkerson.
While Prok hasn't run many burner courses this fall, she's cracked 18 once, and run 18:33 or faster three times.
Most recently Prok won the 4A Region 3 title in 18:13.
While the title looks like it'll go to one of these two, there's always the chance that Blair, the top returner and veteran in the field, could rise to the occasion as she has many times before.
Last year Blair was the runner-up at the State meet. Add that as a freshman she was ninth. Clearly, she knows how to run this Penrose course.
The Eagle Valley junior won four of six races this season, with a season-best of 17:20 from the Warrior Matchett Park XC - that's the fastest time in the State.
Additionally, she's run 17:40 or faster thee times this season.