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MileSplit HQ - We are officially halfway through the Cross Country season, and things are beginning to shake out. As more and more athletes begin rounding into form, we are seeing things settle down in the rankings. For those looking at the Speed Rating National Rankings for the first time, please refer to our previous articles for a better explanation on the system.
What's The Difference Between Flo50 and SR-NR?
A common misconception is that these rankings are predicting who will win a particular race. This is incorrect. The Flo50 Rankings are specifically designed to predict who will win either of the national races on an individual basis. The Speed Rating National Rankings are reflecting what the numbers designate as the best performances so far in the season. Alek Parson defeated US #1 Garek Bielazyc, however, Garek's performance at Griak was statistically more impressive. All the Speed Rating National Rankings can do on an individual basis is give you a strong guideline of who will be in contention, and who is favored going into the race.
The team rankings are similar. The Flo50 predicts in what order they believe will be the finishers in the team scoring at NXN. The Speed Rating National Rankings reflect what would happen if every kid on every team had their best day of the season at the same time, in the same race. Downingtown West is ranked behind Manlius, despite Manlius taking 5th in Manhattan to D-West's 1st. Occurrences like this usually indicate someone had an "off day" on that respective team, on that respective race. Actual race results will vary widely on a number of factors. Again, the team rankings should be used as a guideline, but not as a definitive predictor.
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Predicting NXN is always a flawed system. Predictions usually assume that all things are equal. However, factors such as time-zone change, racing only to qualify, illness, injury, and overtraining can have an effect on predictions. Likewise, past history at the event is not always indicative of future success. Several athletes in 2014 had "off days" at NXN, either from taking it out too hard, getting caught in the crowd, or many other possible problems. In short, you could run the same race, one day apart, and get drastically different results. As such, finish order at NXN and Foot Locker is used only to identify possible athletes to watch, and have no affect on the order here.
Girls Top Individuals - Click Here
Girls Top Teams - Click Here
Boys Top Individuals - Click Here
Boys Top Teams - Click Here