The Herndon girls made easy work of the competition en route to their dominating win at the Northern Region Meet with a 50 point team total. Winning the annually ultra-competitive Northern Region Meet by a 30 point margin is no easy feat, but the Lady Hornets sure made it look like that was the case. Four Herndon runners earned All-Region honors in the race with seniors Heather Fisher (6th, 18:26), Kristin Hart (6th, 18:26), Jenny Miller (10th, 18:35), and Jessie Erickson (12th, 18:38). Rounding out a senior only top five for Herndon was Carleigh Gregory with a 20th place finishing time of 19:08 on the Burke Lake 2.98 mile course. To have four runners earn All-Region honors in the Northern Region and have nearly their entire top five under 19 minutes at Burke Lake speaks loud volumes of what kind of team Herndon possesses. No team in the state at any point of the season has had a more impressive performance than Herndon's regional race. The only weakness going against Herndon is the gap that exists after their number five runner. After Gregory's 20th place finish at regions, the next two finishers for Herndon were sophomore Colleen Lear (59th, 20:11) and junior Sarah Sieb (70th, 20:34). Lear and Sieb will have to close the gap on their front five at states for insurance purposes, in case one of their seniors has a bad race or it could open the window of opportunity for other challengers. Herndon's lack of depth after five was shown in the one race where the squad ran without one of their top five senior runners, Jenny Miller, at the William & Mary Invitational. At William & Mary, they were dealt their only defeat of the season as they finished fourth overall behind meet champion Western Albemarle and runner-up Midlothian. Lucky for Herndon, Western Albemarle is in AA, but Midlothian is in AAA and will be competing in Saturday's race against Midlothian. Granted if Miller was inserted into the race it could have been a 40 point swing of points and possibly given Herndon the win over Midlothian, but it still leaves a cloud of doubt over the favorites if one of their five seniors falters in the race on Saturday.
Despite the Midlothian girls' success throughout the season including their win over Herndon at William & Mary, they nearly managed to knock themselves out of competing in the state meet for the second consecutive year with a performance at last Saturday's Central Region Meet that could not have been any worse. Team front runner and race champion, Amanda Patterson, collapsed shortly after she finished the race and had to be taken away in an ambulance. Number two runner Erin Prillaman, a sub 19 minute 5K runner, went into heat exhaustion during the race, and had to use every ounce of energy in her body just to cross the line in a time of 22:51 for 55th place as the Lady Trojans' number seven runner. Usual number three and four runners Jessica Oakley (39th, 21:57) and Maria Anthony (53rd, 22:47) were suffering from a bout with headcaseitis (note: headcaseitis is not an actual word or mental illness, but these two created it with their regional performances). If it was not for the race performances from their regular number five through seven runners, Stephanie Fernald (16th, 20:48), Christine Blackburn (28th, 21:23), and Lauren Ragsdale (30th, 21:37), only Patterson would be competing for Midlothian this weekend.
Now on a positive note, if Patterson and Prillaman are able to recover from their physical problems and Oakley and Anthony likewise from their mental ones, Midlothian is fully capable of knocking off Herndon and winning the whole meet. It is a crazy thought when considering they barely made it out of the region, but it is a feasible reality when you look at how they had performed up until that point and the fact that they have already beaten Herndon this season. Patterson, hopefully fully recovered from her emergency room visit Saturday, will be going for first place individually for Midlothian. Meanwhile, Prillaman has joined Patterson to form one of the best duos in the state this fall and should be in contention for All-State honors. Prillaman has a 18:51 5K best, which she posted in a district runner-up performance to Patterson just two weeks ago. Oakley has dipped under 20 minutes before and Anthony has come close to breaking that barrier before as well for the 5K distance. With Fernald running well as the team's number five, if the other four runners return to their top form, Midlothian is fully capable of a top three finish at states and challenging Herndon for the crown. However, those are four very big if's to tested on Saturday.
Northwest Region champs Forest Park also have a squad that could challenge Herndon if the Lady Hornets should slip at Great Meadows. The Lady Bruins possess one of the strong top three groups in the Beth Fahey, Stefanie Slekis, and Ecaterina Burton. Fahey, the Northwest Regional individual champ, will be expected to be Patterson's biggest challenger for the individual crown as she just recently posted a swift 18:44 5K at the regional meet. The sophomore Slekis has had a stellar second season of cross country as she now finds herself in position for a strong top ten finish at the state meet after her runner-up performance at the Northwest Regional Meet (19:16). Burton finished sixth at the regional meet (20:06), but has a season best of 19:54 for the 5K. What will make or break the Forest Park squad will be the performances out of their fourth and five runners, Jessica Koch and Amanda Bates. Koch, a senior, ran a personal best time of 20:48 at the regional meet. While Bates finished fifth for the team at regions (20:56), she also has a season best of 20:23 for the 5K. If Koch and Bates can drop their times even closer to 20 minutes flat on Saturday, Forest Park could pull out the upset.
Maggie Walker is coming off a strong performance in their Central Region title win and a new #3 AAA ranking heading into this weekend's meet. The Green Dragons have one of the strongest front two pair in the state with Central Region runner-up Ritchie Vaughan and Emily Wauford. Both Vaughan and Wauford are All-State hopefuls as Vaughan is currently ranked #6 in AAA, while Wauford is ranked #15. If both Vaughan and Wauford are able to earn all-state finishes Saturday it will significantly help Maggie Walker's chances of reaching the podium. Samantha DeAlto has stepped up in the number three role for Maggie Walker as of late with her more recent race at the Central Region Meet, being her finest. DeAlto finished 10th with All-Region honors and a time of 20:27. However, DeAlto will need to close the gap even more on Vaughan and Wauford this Saturday. Junior Abby Rhea (19th, 20:59), senior Amy Dail (21st, 21:06), and sophomore Alicia Glorfield (22nd, 21:07) formed a tight pack for the number four, five, and six places for Maggie Walker to help seal their regional title win, but this group of three will need to move up even more at Great Meadows for Maggie Walker to be successful.
Westfield, Northern Region runner-up, is a team mixed with talented freshmen and upperclassmen, who all share something in common as it is Westfield's first ever state meet appearance. The Lady Bulldogs are led by one of the top freshmen talents in the state with Catherine Lynn, who finished third at the Northern Region Meet with a time of 17:58 on the Burke Lake 2.98 mile course. Lynn has definite potential to finish within the top ten at states and at least earn All-State honors. Running in the number two slot for Westfield is All-Northern Region performer, senior Ashley Johnson (15th, 18:55). What makes Westfield so impressive and a team to keep close tabs on for this weekend's race is the depth of their entire top seven. The next five runners for Westfield are not too far behind Johnson with less than a 40 second gap in between her and Westfield's number seven runner as freshmen Alexis Deegan (18th, 19:01), junior Jessie Deegan (23rd, 19:13), senior Jacqueline Chapman (25th, 19:15), junior Christina Larssen (26th, 19:15), and sophomore Sabina Paige (35th, 19:31) all came through with solid regional performances to give Westfield what appears to be the deepest team out of all of the AAA schools. In fact, if the Northern Region Meet was scored through seven, Westfield would actually beat top ranked Herndon (138-168). However, meets are scored through five, but that still does give Westfield the edge over other contending teams that are only solid through five. If one of the five runners on those teams has a bad day, it could be disastrous, but Westfield on the other hand has seven capable runners to fill in those five scoring places.
Douglas Freeman heads into this weekend's state meet race with lots of momentum from their Central Region runner-up performance last Saturday. The Lady Rebels have a closely packed top four that only had a 23 second difference between them at Pole Green this past weekend. Douglas Freeman is led by two rising freshmen stars in Sonja Lokensgard and Laura Wallace, who finished eighth (20:08) and ninth (20:23) respectively at the regional meet to earn All-Region honors. Not far behind the two ninth graders were seniors Katie Strickler (11th, 20:30) and Tyler Wallace (12th, 20:31) who earned All-Region honors as well. With a first four like that, it is hard to imagine that would not be able to win the regional crown. However, over one minute after Tyler Wallace finished, Douglas Freeman's number five finally came in with senior Bekah Wahlquist (29th, 21:36). The finish of Freeman's number five put them too far back for them to be able to defeat eventual champion Maggie Walker. Not far behind Wahlquist were freshmen Jenny Duty (31st, 21:37) and Beth Strickler (33rd, 21:38). Freeman will need a duplicate performance out of their top four at states as well as one of their next three runners to step it up and close that minute gap found in between the two packs for Freeman to hope to finish within the top three.
Hayfield, the third place finishing team at the Northern Region Meet, will be led by the duo of Northern Region champ Melissa Dewey and returning state runner-up Morgan Phelan. Dewey has been untouchable against Northern Region competition this fall, which has included an impressive win at the Glory Days Grill Invitational where she ran a personal best 5K time of . At the Northern Region Meet, Dewey won running away with a time of 17:36. Based off of her recent performances, Dewey stands an outside shot of winning the individual title. Phelan, on the other hand has gradually shown progress from a multiple stress fracture injury last spring and continues to work herself back into the shape that earned her a second place finish at last year's state meet. Phelan had her season's best run at the Northern Region Meet as she placed fourth in a time of 18:06. Dewey and Phelan give Hayfield two runners who have the ability to give the squad two single digit scoring places, which is huge in state meet competition. Hayfield's next set of runners have made considerable strides since the beginning the season to give the team the opportunity to make a statement this weekend. At the regional meet, senior Neela Balkissoon (24th, 19:14) and the freshmen foursome of Gretch Wendelberger (28th, 19:18), Amy Weber (33rd, 19:28), and Jamie Puhek (36th, 19:32), and Shannen Clevand (48th, 19:50) all had strong races to help the Lady Hawks advance to the state meet. If this pack can provide Dewey and Phelan with even better support Saturday, Hayfield could be able to sneak into that top three.
There are many if's regarding the AAA girls' team title. Herndon...Can Herndon's five seniors all perform well on the same day? If so, they will be virtually untouchable as shown in the regional meet performance. If not, the title will be up for grabs among the next contending teams. Midlothian...Can they recover in only a one week span from the disaster known as the Central Region Meet? If so, they will not need Herndon to have a bad day for them to win because they have the talent to beat them. They have done it before and can do it again. If not, you will not see Midlothian coming close to even putting a step on the podium for a top three finish. It will be even uglier than their regional meet. If Herndon and Midlothian are unable to answer their if's on Saturday, Forest Park, Maggie Walker, Westfield, Hayfield, and Douglas Freeman are all chomping at the bits as the next teams in line. Forest Park, Maggie Walker, Hayfield, and Freeman have solid front runners, but could use a bit more support from their back runners. Westfield on the other hand has a great advantage of being deep through seven. It is very easy for other teams to have at least one or two runners with off races, but such off days will be demise of these teams' state title and top three hopes. Westfield is the darkhorse of this group.
The individual race appears it will be a two person foot race between Central Region champ Amanda Patterson of Midlothian and Northwest Region champ Beth Fahey of Forest Park. Fellow regional champions, Hayfied junior Melissa Dewey from the Northern Region and Kellam senior Natalie Sherbak from the Eastern Region, also have excellent shots at winning their first ever state titles based on their recent performances.
Midlothian junior Amanda Patterson has been the current queen of Virginia distance running this fall. Ranked #1 in the state for much of the season and going undefeated in competition up until this weekend, only scratches a tip of the iceberg in what this fast fleeted rising star has accomplished this fall. Patterson has not just squeaked by with wins in all her races, she has dominated. From her first race of the season at the Great Meadows Invitational, where on a rain slickened and muddy Great Meadows course, she easily defeated the likes of Fahey, Dewey, and Sherbak to her most recent district and regional title wins, where she shattered her district meet's course record with a 18:12 5K time, Patterson has proven herself as the state's best runner this fall. The only question mark that lies with Patterson is the status of her health after collasping shortly after finishing her race at the Central Region Meet, where she was taken off in an ambulance. Most likely a heat related incident with many other runners suffering from similar energy zapping symptoms on a extremely seasonly warm November day. The question is how will she recover physically and mentally from such a traumatic event.
Patterson's biggest challenger appears to be Fahey as Fahey has run strong as of late and has the third fastest 5K time in AAA behind Patterson at 18:31. Fahey and Patterson raced very early in September at the Octoberfest Invitational, where Patterson defeated Fahey by over 20 seconds. That gap should be a lot closer on Saturday as Fahey has progressively improved over the season including a strong run at the Northern Region Meet where she clocked a 18:44 on a fairly challenging Panorama Farms 5K course.
Northern Region champ Melissa Dewey of Hayfield has had some very impressive runs when she races soley against her regional competitors as shown in her 18:35 5K win at the Glory Days Grill Invitational and 17:36 win at the Northern Region Meet on the Burke Lake 2.98 mile course. However, when she has raced in the bigger invitationals against the likes of Patterson and Fahey, she has come up with only lukewarm performances. At the Great Meadows Invitational against Patterson and Fahey, Dewey finished fourth in a time of 20:07 as she was over 20 seconds behind Fahey and more than 40 seconds behind Patterson. At the William & Mary Invitational, Dewey finished sixth and was nearly 50 seconds behind the race winner Patterson. One thing Dewey has going for her heading into this Saturday's race is that those two races were in the early parts of the season and since then Dewey has had much more impressive performances with her Glory Days and Northern Region win. If Dewey can perform at the same level she performs when she is at home in her Northern Virginia racing grounds, it might not be just a race with Patterson and Fahey. Dewey might have to enter the equation.
Kellam's Natalie Sherbak is the same boat as Dewey. Sherbak had some so-so performances against Patterson and Fahey at the Great Meadows Invitational and William & Mary Invitational, but has turned it on during championship season starting with her district meet. At the Beach District Meet, Sherbak clocked a swift 18:29 5K to move into the second behind Patterson among the fastest 5K times posted so far this season. At the Eastern Region Meet held at Newport News Park, Sherbak outdid herself once again by running a personal best time of 18:22 to win her first ever cross country title. With last year's AAA state champion Hickory's Jennifer Boyd now graduated and running at N.C. State, perhaps it is Sherbak's turn to follow in the footsteps of the same person she closely followed only a few steps behind last fall.
Other runners to look out for include Forest Park sophomore Stefanie Slekis, Maggie Walker junior Ritchie Vaughan, Yorktown senior Katherine Read, Westfield freshmen Catherine Lynn, Hayfield senior Morgan Phelan, Franklin County freshmen Brittany Killough. Slekis and Vaughan are two to especially watch out for as they are easily overlooked being only runners-up in their respective regional meets. When you have the likes of Beth Fahey and Amanda Patterson in your region, the odds are against you to win the regional title. However, Slekis and Vaughan can easily run with other regional champions Dewey and Sherbak as Slekis for example defeated both runners at the Great Meadows Invitational. Lynn and Killough as mere freshmen could make even bigger splashes on the state scene Saturday than they already have. Phelan, a state runner-up to Boyd a year ago, surprised many with her race at Great Meadows last year. There is no reason why she cannot surprise again. Read has ran exceptionally well all season as the number two runner in the Northern Region behind Dewey. If Read can stick with Dewey and others, she may find herself in the thick of things as they enter into the final stretch.
Even with the Herndon girls' team and Amanda Patterson coined as the "favorites" for Saturday's race and the word "favorites" is said very loosely, nothing is guaranteed in cross country. That is why they run the races. Let's see how the favorites and the challengers respond when they toe the line on Saturday at 1:00 PM.