NXN NY Preview: A New Era of Boys Teams?

Flo50 teams: 8 Liverpool, 10 East Aurora, bubble Fayetteville-Manlius
Flo50 individuals: 11 Ben Petrella, 14 Aidan Tooker, 16 Noah Affolder, bubble Kenny Vasbinder, bubble Conor Lundy
Top returning individuals: Tooker, Vasbinder, Lundy, Petrella, Affolder, Frederick Buckholtz, Dan Schaffer, Peter Ryan, Noah Carey, Brian Bates

Unlike the bipolar (in the international relations sense) world of the girls team race, seven different boys' teams have finished in the top two in the NXN-NY boys race. Here's the complete history: 

2008: Shen, FM
2009: FM, Burnt Hills
2010: FM, Shaker
2011: Shaker, FM
2012: FM, Saratoga
2013: FM, Northport
2014: FM, St. Anthony's

You can likely add an eighth team to that list, as 8 Liverpool edged out bubble FM 32-36 at the Section 3 meet and then beat Corning 61-80 at the state championship. Here are Liverpool, Corning, and East Aurora's speed ratings from the state meet:

L- 196, 184, 184, 168, 165
C- 186, 175, 172, 169, 161
E- 193, 177, 169, 168, 166

Liverpool and FM at section 3:

L- 195, 182, 181, 176, 166
F- 185, 183, 176, 171, 165

and for good measure, St. Anthony's and Xavier at Feds: 

S- 182, 179, 178, 174, 166
X- 181, 176, 176, 171, 170

In short: Liverpool is clearly the best team, but the next five spots could go in any order. If you were to merge those speed ratings for a fictional meet with just those six teams, it would go:

Liverpool 64
F-M 72
St. Anthony's 73
Xavier 79
East Aurora 88
Corning 89

Hoo boy. I'm comfortable picking Liverpool as the winner, but freely admit that picking the second auto bid is basically throwing a dart in the dark, blindfolded, at a target that is around the corner, with a dart that's made out of cheap plastic.

In the individual race, Saratoga's Aidan Tooker, Carthage's Noah Affolder, McQuaid Jesuit's Donny Glavin, and Fordham Prep's Conor Lundy are the only major players without teammates to fall back on for a ticket to Portland.  Liverpool's Ben Petrella is the heavy favorite, but will probably make it with his team. East Aurora's Kenny Vasbinder and Fayetteville-Manlius's Peter Ryan are in that funky middle zone where they have to run with their teams in mind, but can't go too conservatively should their teams not qualify.

THE PICK: 1. Liverpool 2. East Aurora