Nike Cross Nationals South Regional Coverage
Boys Preview 
Where: Bear Branch Sports Park, The Woodlands, TX
When: 10:45 a.m. CT
States: AR - LA - OK - TX - MS
Saucony Flo50 Teams: U.S. #2 Texas #1 The Woodlands
Team Challengers: Flower Mound (TX), El Paso Eastwood (TX), Lovejoy (TX), Northwest Nelson(TX), Luling (TX)
Saucony Flo50 Individuals: #9 Reed Brown (TX), #14 Sam Worley (TX), #24 Daniel Bernal (TX)
2015 Team Qualifiers: The Woodlands (TX), Southlake Carroll (TX),
Top Individual Returners: 1. Reed Brown (TX), 4.Charlie Gardner (TX), 5. Daniel Bernal (TX), 52. Noah Wells (TX), 7. Matthew Kearney (TX), 73. Charlie Gardner (TX), 6. Sam Worley (TX), 8. William Hunsdale (TX), and 9. Theo Goff (TX), 11. Ethan Hageman (TX)
Analysis: The individual battle is going to be the one to watch here. It's been proven on the team side of things that The Woodlands guys are well above the rest field. They are ranked No. 2 in the U.S. Saucony Flo50 and No. 1 in Texas for a good reason. They dominated the Texas 6A state meet, scoring 51 points. The next closest team was Southlake Carroll with 123 points. Flower Mound posted a surprising, third-place finish with 124 points, only one point off from edging Southlake Carroll. I think the race will play out differently this weekend at NXN South. The Woodlands are still going to run away with it, but the guys from Southlake are going to pull away from Flower Mound. Some of the leading runners on The Woodlands' squad who will be in the mix for the individual crown are William Hunsdale, who finished eighth this past year, Noah Wells, who finished 16th, and Gavin Hoffpauir. Other teams that could take a shot at qualifying for NXN are Northwest Nelson, which finished fourth in the Texas 6A state meet, Lovejoy, the Class 5A winner, and Luling, which won Class 3A but is no stranger to mixing things up with the big dogs this year. With that being said, it will be no easy feat for any of those teams to take down The Woodlands or Southlake Carroll, who are familiar with the national spotlight.
On the individual side, some of the runners who will be fighting for a chance to win NXN South are the same guys who were fighting to win the Texas UIL 6A state meet. Namely, the four we referred to in the Texas 6A state preview as the Power Four: Sam Worley, Reed Brown, Daniel Bernal, and Daniel Viegra. Worley was the 2016 UIL Class 6A state champion, running the fastest time of the day at 14:40.82. Daniel Bernal was third, and Reed Brown was fourth. The only one of the Power Four who was not in the top five was Viegra, who dropped out around 2.5 miles. Viegra has been battling with a late start to his season due to injury and sickness. He will look to bounce back in the same way Worley did in 2015 after dropping out of state but still coming back a week later to qualify for NXN. It's going to be extremely tough as the competition elevates to another level. All of the guys in the Power Four are seniors with Bernal, Worley, and Brown having previous NXN meet experience.
While he isn't a senior, Alex Maier is a runner who could take them all down and will be looking to at the very least qualify. Maier has beat all of the guys listed above this year except Worley, finishing second at the 6A state meet only three seconds behind Worley. This young sophomore is looking to make a name for himself in not only Texas but also nationally with a possible trip to NXN on the line. These five guys are some of our heavy favorites, but there are plenty more with a shot of cracking in when you take out the team scores. (Reed and Maier are both on teams with the best shot to make it).
In Texas alone, there are a lot of names that come to mind with a shot at being one of the top five individuals, including San Antonio Holmes' Ethan Hageman. He finished just three spots shy of making it a year ago. This year he's going to have a much bigger battle after also dropping out of the state meet due to illness. He will look to have a week of recovery under his belt and a shot at redemption to run aginst the South's best. Speaking of this past year, two of the individuals not yet mentioned who made NXN will be back in the action on Saturday: Matthew Kearney and Theo Goff. A senior from Conroe Oak Ridge, Goff finished ninth in 2015 at NXN South and 175th at NXN. This year, he was 13th at the state meet and will have to make up some ground if he wants to qualify for NXN again in 2016. Kearney is in the same boat as Goff as he finished seventh a year ago at NXN South, 58th at NXN, but only 20th at this year's state meet.
Some guys who ran well at state and will look to challenge for a spot on the line at NXN are 3A state champion Kyle Doty; top 6A finishers Connor O'neill, Jake Johnson, Worthington Moore, Eric Casarez; and top 5A finishers Ace Castillo, Sergio Armendariz, Zephyr Seagraves, and Michael Abeyta.
The out-of-state guys who have a shot at qualifying are Matthew Young and Jed Helker from Oklahoma, and Camren Fischer from Arkansas. Young has previously mixed it up with the Texas guys at Marcus I, the Southlake Distance Festival, and Jesuit-Sheaner Relays. Not to mention he was the Oklahoma 5A-6A state champion this year. Helker got a taste of Texas at the Chile Pepper Cross Country Invitational, where he battled Brown and others to a fourth-place individual finish. He also finished fourth at the Oklahoma 5A-6A state championship. Fischer beat Helker at the Chile Pepper Cross Country Festival where he placed third. He is also the Arkansas 7A boys state champion.
Team Prediction: 1. The Woodlands 2. Southlake Carroll
Individual Prediction: 1. Sam Worley 2. Reed Brown 3. Alex Maier 4. Daniel Bernal 5. William Hunsdale
The Southlake Carroll XC Squad after racing the NXN South mud fest last year: