2014 NXN Girls Projections
The below scores are my general projections for Nike Cross Nationals. They are based off a mixture of the eyeball test, speed ratings, and general performance at NXN in the past. It should be noted that these are projections, not predictions. Projections assume that everyone in the race will run well. Predictions accept the fact that that is not true, and try to handicap (mostly unsuccessfully) certain teams or individuals. The below scores are based off the assumption that teams have peaked for Nationals, and are healthy enough to run as hard as they can. With that said, things happen. For some teams, qualifying for NXN was the singular goal. For others, an early race fall to the ground or a mid-trip illness shakes up the entire scoring matrix. But as they stand, they are a good indication of who is "in it" in the coming week.
A note for coaches looking to improve their score. The race at NXN operates on a bell curve. It is much easier to improve your score from the athletes in the middle, than it is from those in front. Also, most race positions are separated only by full and half seconds. That means things can vary greatly with only marginal improvements. The assumption is, however. that everyone will marginally improve, with more so of an improvement from those who qualified earlier in the year (their regional was less of a reflectional of where they'll be now, as compared to those we saw race this past weekend). You can also find another set of projections by clicking here. Bill Meylan creates the speed ratings we use to process the raw data. We then differ on our handicaps, and analysis', his from the point of view of a gambler, while mine are the point of view of a coach. And finally, for the first time ever, we've included the raw data on the next page (to an extent), so if you disagree with the below scores, we have given you the tools to tinker, and create your own.
Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Manlius XC Club 52 2 6 12 15 17 89 108
Total Time: 52 Average: 10.40 1-5 Split: 15
2 Great Oak 180 3 20 24 66 67 74 84
Total Time: 3:00 Average: 36.00 1-5 Split: 1:04
3 Kinetic 181 10 23 41 50 57 98 146
Total Time: 3:01 Average: 36.20 1-5 Split: 47
4 North Naperville Running 212 27 32 37 40 76 100 131
Total Time: 3:32 Average: 42.40 1-5 Split: 49
5 Carmel Distance Project 219 22 29 51 53 64 70 104
Total Time: 3:39 Average: 43.80 1-5 Split: 42
6 Legacy Track Club 248 18 19 56 69 86 101 143
Total Time: 4:08 Average: 49.60 1-5 Split: 1:08
7 Blacksburg 268 21 31 48 54 114 126 133
Total Time: 4:28 Average: 53.60 1-5 Split: 1:33
8 Palatine XC Club 274 13 42 55 77 87 117 137
Total Time: 4:34 Average: 54.80 1-5 Split: 1:14
9 Wayzata XC 279 5 33 35 95 111 118 142
Total Time: 4:39 Average: 55.80 1-5 Split: 1:46
10 Western Cary 284 4 60 61 79 80 113 135
Total Time: 4:44 Average: 56.80 1-5 Split: 1:16
11 American Fork Cross Count 292 43 47 62 68 72 103 123
Total Time: 4:52 Average: 58.40 1-5 Split: 29
12 Black Bear Running 304 14 16 65 75 134 148 149
Total Time: 5:04 Average: 1:00.80 1-5 Split: 2:00
13 Saugus 316 11 45 78 85 97 112 124
Total Time: 5:16 Average: 1:03.20 1-5 Split: 1:26
14 La Salle XC Club 317 9 34 44 109 121 125 138
Total Time: 5:17 Average: 1:03.40 1-5 Split: 1:52
15 U-Ville Running Club 331 7 49 73 92 110 140 153
Total Time: 5:31 Average: 1:06.20 1-5 Split: 1:43
16 Camas 343 26 30 52 116 119 122 150
Total Time: 5:43 Average: 1:08.60 1-5 Split: 1:33
17 Davis Xc Club 346 8 25 91 107 115 127 145
Total Time: 5:46 Average: 1:09.20 1-5 Split: 1:47
18 Thunder X-c 354 1 38 88 99 128 130 132
Total Time: 5:54 Average: 1:10.80 1-5 Split: 2:07
19 Hebron Cross Country Club 378 28 46 93 105 106 144 151
Total Time: 6:18 Average: 1:15.60 1-5 Split: 1:18
20 Winged Foot Running Club 407 71 81 82 83 90 102 139
Total Time: 6:47 Average: 1:21.40 1-5 Split: 19
21 Marauders 409 39 58 63 120 129 141 154
Total Time: 6:49 Average: 1:21.80 1-5 Split: 1:30
22 Coeur D'Alene 421 36 59 94 96 136 147 152
Total Time: 7:01 Average: 1:24.20 1-5 Split: 1:40