2014 NXN Boys Projections
The below scores are my general projections for Nike Cross Nationals. They are based off a mixture of the eyeball test, speed ratings, and general performance at NXN in the past. It should be noted that these are projections, not predictions. Projections assume that everyone in the race will run well. Predictions accept the fact that that is not true, and try to handicap (mostly unsuccessfully) certain teams or individuals. The below scores are based off the assumption that teams have peaked for Nationals, and are healthy enough to run as hard as they can. With that said, things happen. For some teams, qualifying for NXN was the singular goal. For others, an early race fall to the ground or a mid-trip illness shakes up the entire scoring matrix. But as they stand, they are a good indication of who is "in it" in the coming week.
A note for coaches looking to improve their score. The race at NXN operates on a bell curve. It is much easier to improve your score from the athletes in the middle, than it is from those in front. Also, most race positions are separated only by full and half seconds. That means things can vary greatly with only marginal improvements. The assumption is, however. that everyone will marginally improve, with more so of an improvement from those who qualified earlier in the year (their regional was less of a reflectional of where they'll be now, as compared to those we saw race this past weekend). You can also find another set of projections by clicking here. Bill Meylan creates the speed ratings we use to process the raw data. We then differ on our handicaps, and analysis', his from the point of view of a gambler, while mine are the point of view of a coach. And finally, for the first time ever, we've included the raw data on the next page (to an extent), so if you disagree with the below scores, we have given you the tools to tinker, and create your own.
Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run Team Scores ===================================================================================== Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) ===================================================================================== 1 Manlius XC Club 99 2 6 7 16 68 88 136 Total Time: 1:44 Average: 20.80 1-5 Split: 1:06 2 American Fork Cross Count 160 8 11 17 53 71 97 129 Total Time: 2:45 Average: 33.00 1-5 Split: 1:03 3 Assisi XC 166 10 25 28 38 65 113 115 Total Time: 2:51 Average: 34.20 1-5 Split: 55 4 La Salle XC Club 167 12 22 31 46 56 120 133 Total Time: 2:52 Average: 34.40 1-5 Split: 44 5 Ventura 214 18 20 45 47 84 99 126 Total Time: 3:39 Average: 43.80 1-5 Split: 1:06 6 Warriors 218 4 21 29 74 90 124 128 Total Time: 3:43 Average: 44.60 1-5 Split: 1:26 7 Davis Xc Club 221 23 27 32 67 72 125 137 Total Time: 3:46 Average: 45.20 1-5 Split: 49 8 Brothers XC Club 238 13 50 52 59 64 73 86 Total Time: 4:03 Average: 48.60 1-5 Split: 51 9 Summit 272 36 41 44 69 82 140 - Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 46 10 North Central 273 1 37 55 77 103 132 134 Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 1:43 11 Jurupa Hills 278 15 19 35 93 116 138 142 Total Time: 4:43 Average: 56.60 1-5 Split: 1:41 12 Sandburg XC Club 281 48 51 54 58 70 80 111 Total Time: 4:46 Average: 57.20 1-5 Split: 22 13 Wayzata XC 283 14 24 49 87 109 121 130 Total Time: 4:48 Average: 57.60 1-5 Split: 1:35 14 Alpha T-wolves 327 34 60 62 66 105 143 145 Total Time: 5:32 Average: 1:06.40 1-5 Split: 1:11 15 Lemrac 339 9 76 79 83 92 139 141 Total Time: 5:44 Average: 1:08.80 1-5 Split: 1:23 16 Washington C 341 3 33 78 96 131 148 151 Total Time: 5:46 Average: 1:09.20 1-5 Split: 2:08 17 Brea Olinda 364 26 42 75 102 119 146 - Total Time: 6:09 Average: 1:13.80 1-5 Split: 1:33 18 SFL Patriots 380 5 63 94 104 114 123 127 Total Time: 6:25 Average: 1:17.00 1-5 Split: 1:49 19 Severna Park 397 40 81 85 91 100 150 152 Total Time: 6:42 Average: 1:20.40 1-5 Split: 1:00 20 Carroll XC Club 411 30 39 107 117 118 135 149 Total Time: 6:56 Average: 1:23.20 1-5 Split: 1:28 21 Edina XC Running Club 431 43 89 95 98 106 144 147 Total Time: 7:16 Average: 1:27.20 1-5 Split: 1:03 22 Woodlands XC Club 437 57 61 101 108 110 112 122 Total Time: 7:22 Average: 1:28.40 1-5 Split: 53