Nike Cross Regionals - New York
Boys Teams
By the time the dust settles, the ranking order of arguably the three best boys teams the state has ever seen will be decided.
At the top of the list lies Fayetteville-Manlius. No team has ever had four individuals at or above a 190 speed rating. FM has skated with that record twice already this season. No team has ever broken 16mins for the 5-Man Average at Bowdoin Park. If weather permits, that record is more a question of not if, but by how much. The projections below assume Pete Ryan will return to form (aka not falling), but the score could be even lower with 5th-man Riley Hughes back into form. But as good as they are, the title will be far from handed to them on the starting line. The season means nothing if you can replicate it in the post season.
And then there are two teams looking to upset the favorites to the crown. Liverpool saw significant gains from their trio who would make it on to Canton. Much like FM, they forfeited their opportunity to race at the Federation Championship in lieu of a solid three weeks of training. With many of their runners having been known to peak late in the season, the warriors looks dangerous.
With that said, St. Anthony's at their best, is only a hair off Liverpool at theirs. The below projections include Liverpool's State average, added to their performances at Manhattan. However, if Liverpool repeats with their Sectional performances, then St Anthony's shoots straight up to second. It's that close. Their 5-Man Average at Feds was #3 All-Time, ahead of National Champions and current rivals alike. As the projected scores indicate, this one can swing either way. However, barring any major screwups, New York has the number #1 At-Large selection almost wrapped up. Then again, Rush-Henrietta thought much the same in 2012, so both teams will feel most comfortable with that auto slot.
Behind them, it's anyone's game. Though the scores look inflated, the team that comes in fourth is still a very good team, one which may also look for an At-Large bid.
NXN-NY Boys Projections ===================================================================================== Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) ===================================================================================== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 52 1 4 5 13 29 34 95 Total Time: 52 Average: 10.40 1-5 Split: 28 2 Liverpool 95 2 16 19 20 38 43 54 Total Time: 1:36 Average: 19.20 1-5 Split: 37 3 St. Anthony's 103 7 21 22 25 28 46 56 Total Time: 1:43 Average: 20.60 1-5 Split: 21 4 Pittsford Mendon 262 33 41 50 68 70 80 86 Total Time: 4:30 Average: 54.00 1-5 Split: 39 5 Xavier 268 9 42 63 73 81 88 91 Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 1:16 6 Guilderland 270 17 49 53 62 89 124 170 Total Time: 4:37 Average: 55.40 1-5 Split: 1:16 7 Syosset 275 10 31 64 83 87 141 150 Total Time: 4:44 Average: 56.80 1-5 Split: 1:21 8 Corning 296 37 45 58 59 97 110 140 Total Time: 5:04 Average: 1:00.80 1-5 Split: 1:03 9 Fordham Prep 301 12 18 39 90 142 153 162 Total Time: 5:12 Average: 1:02.40 1-5 Split: 2:16 10 Ithaca 304 6 55 67 71 105 107 125 Total Time: 5:13 Average: 1:02.60 1-5 Split: 1:43
Boys Individuals
There will be two separate races here. As such, the 10th seeded athlete in the race, is actually the fifth. That's because many of the frontrunners will be looking to qualify on the team front.
Breaking down that race, Bryce Millar (FM) and Ben Petrella (Liverpool) will once again go at it. The gap has been closing all season, and it may be the push enough for the course record to go down. Millar will have the company of teammates Kyle Barber and Pete Ryan at the front, with Adam Hunt not far behind. Says a little about the team scoring as well. Pat Tucker (St. Anthony's) will most likely also be in the front pack, as he was the first person out of the woods at Feds.
With those five hypothetically removed as team qualifers, the race behind is very close. Kenny Vasbinder (East Auroa) looks to be the favorite after his Fed Meet performance. Marco Pompilj (Collegiate) missed out on a qualifying spot the year before, and has done the work to improve. Dan Dracup (Ithaca) passed up the chance to run at Feds, but returns to the course two weeks later in the hunt for an individual slot. Aidan Tooker (Saratoga) is looking for a streak of his own, making it three years running he has qualified. John Rice (Xavier) rounds out the top 5 favorites for the big show, but only just.
Noah Affolder (Carthage) was previously undefeated before Feds. Now that he has had his first run on the famed Bowdoin Park, an adjusted strategy may give him an altered results. Conor Lundy (Fordham) was not far off Rice at Intersectionals, and will look to stick with him once again. There are plenty of ways this could play out, and the only way to find out is to watch the race unfold.
| Top Contenders | Top Challengers |
| 1. Kenny Vasbinder - East Aurora | 6. Jeremy Spiezio - Greenwich |
| 2. Marco Pompilj - Collegiate | 7. Noah Affolder - Carthage |
| 3. Aidan Tooker - Saratoga | 8. Tyler Italiano - Syosset |
| 4. Dan Dracup - Ithaca | 9. Conor Lundy - Fordham Prep |
| 5. John Rice - Xavier | 10. Gavigan (TZ) / Baird (Mount) |
| Double Entered (FL / NXN) | |
| Mikey Brannigan - Northport | |