AAA Boys State Meet Preview

THE PLAINS, VA -- You would think by the end of November there would be a general consensus on who the top favorites would be to win the VHSL Group AAA boys' cross country state individual and team titles. However, after the strong performances as well as surprises in last week's regional meets, quite a handful of teams and individuals are in contention for the top honors. Without any one team or individual coming in with a clear edge over the other, this uncertaintity makes it certain that this Saturday's VHSL Group AAA boys state race could be one of the most exciting and most competitive races in recent history.

The boys from Thomas Jefferson return to Great Meadows and ready to defend their state title they walked away with a year ago. This group is not as invincible as last year's team, which went undefeated the entire fall against in-state competition. This year's team has hit its bumps and skids in the road after being ranked #1 in the state in the pre-season and throughout the month of September. In October, two consecutive defeates were dealt to the defending champs by current #1 state and AA ranked, James Wood, at the Octoberfest Invitational and then the following weekend at the Glory Days Grill Invitational, Concorde District and Northern Region rival, Oakton, got the best of them.

However, since those two defeats, Coach Matt Ryan has had his boys on a roll and looking primed to repeat their success at states. The Colonials won titles decisively at the Concorde District and Northern Region meets over competitive fields including #4 AAA ranked Westfield and the team which defeated them earlier in the season, #3 AAA ranked Oakton.

At the regional meet, the Colonials were led by individual regional champion Christo Landry, who covered the Burke Lake 2.98 mile course in a time of 14:57. Landry figures to be in contention to win the state title crown this Saturday or at least is expected to turn in a number one team scoring point card to his coach. Teammate Chris Mocko, ranked #10 in AAA, is an All-State hopeful as he earned the honors twice in his junior season in the 3200 meter run indoors and outdoors. Mocko finished fifth (15:24) at the Northern Regional Meet and has a season best of 16:04 for the 5K distance (Glory Days Grill Invitational). Behind the strong duo of Landry and Mocko for the Colonials, is the group that will decide the fate of the team's success. Kyle Smith, an All-Northern Region performer (12th, 15:41) has had a very strong and consistent season thus far as Thomas Jefferson's number three with a 16:34 5K season best (Glory Days). John McConnell (20th, 15:57) and David Price (32nd, 16:08) had solid regional races, but they will have to close the gap on their other three comrades in order for Thomas Jefferson to hold off potential challengers.

Thomas Jefferson has had the history in recent years to have their best races of the season at mid-season invitationals (2001 - William & Mary Invitational, 2002 - Great American), while coming up flat at the state meet competition (2001 - 5th place at states, 2002 - Allowed Midlothian to nearly pull off the upset). Possibly, the defeats earlier in the season were a good sign that Coach Ryan has altered his training regime to make sure that his boys were at their best at the end of the season, while not worrying so much about trivial invitationals. Based off of the Colonials' performances at their district and regional meets, this may be the case which would spell doom for any other challengers wishing to try and take away the title from the defending champs.

One team that appears to have the best shot at taking down the defending champs is the team with the least amount of the state meet experience, J.R. Tucker. Only one Tucker runner has ever ran in a state meet race, top runner Michael Chapa, who finished 16th in last year's race as a mere freshmen. Last year's team did not even advance to the regional meet. However, experience did not seem to be that much of an obstacle for the Tigers last Saturday at the Central Region Meet as they easily dismantled and destroyed the team competition that included Midlothian and Maggie Walker, teams filled with seasoned veterans in championship race competition.

The Tigers were led at the regional meet by two Sudani imports in Chapa and Thuom Mathaing. Chapa, ranked #6 in AAA, has the capability of finishing even higher in Saturday's state race as he showed at the Colonial District Meet, where he scorched #3 AAA ranked Daniel Howard of Maggie Walker and the Pole Green course recourd en route to his 15:36 district title win. Chapa finished five seconds behind Howard at the Central Region Meet for regional runner-up honors, and figures to finish close to Howard once again on Saturday.

Mathaing, a junior, in his first season of cross country, has made considerable strides since his first race this fall. Running number four for Tucker for the majority of the season in the 17 minute range, Mathaing made a huge jump at the Central Region Meet where he ran a personal best time by over 30 seconds with his seventh place finishing time of 16:23 to finish second for the team.

Mathaing's breakthrough performance was especially pivotal in the Tigers' win at Pole Green last Saturday because normal number two runner, senior Jay Wyss, had an off day with a 13th place finish and a time of 16:33. The week prior at Colonial District Meet, Wyss had finished third in the race behind Chapa and Howard with a personal best time of 16:01. If Chapa, Wyss, and Mathaing all run close to their best this Saturday at Great Meadows, it will be hard for any team to counter the talent the Tigers possess in those three runners.

While it is obvious that Tucker had the potential to do well this season with two running gene enhanced Sudanese and Wyss, a sub 17 5K runner last fall whose season was cut short due to a broken leg, their success would not have been possible if not for the drastic improvements of Mason McElroy and Ben Rickey. McElory had never come close to breaking 17 minutes in a 5K coming into this season. However, his last two races, he has dipped well under that mark with a 16:29 at the Colonial District Meet and a 16:34 at the Central Region Meet as he was one place behind Wyss in 14th place as Tucker's number four runner.

Ben Rickey has consistently been a solid fifth man for Tucker all season long. At the Central Region Meet, Rickey finished 25th with a time of 17:13. However, Rickey must continue his consistency at the state meet, because while Tucker is fortunate to have five solid runners, the depth stops there. Tucker's sixth and seventh runners were just under 19 minutes at the regional meet and if one runner out of the top five for the Tigers falters at states, it could dash any state title hopes for this "Cinderella" team.

The only AAA team thus far this season to defeat the defending champs Thomas Jefferson is Oakton. The Cougars were district and regional runner-ups to the Colonials by honest margins (15 pts at districts, 12 pts at regions) in each race, but look to close that gap with perhaps the strongest pack out of any of the contending teams. Without any true front running star like Thomas Jefferson's Landry or Tucker's Chapa, Oakton has to rely on it's depth to carry them to the title.

The Cougars have by far the best seven out of any team in the state and in state meet competition, it is usually the #3-6 runners who determine state titles. Oakton has been led also season by senior Karl Lang, who finished eighth at the regional meet (15:34) and has a 5K season best of 16:20 (Octoberfest). Lang's move to Oakton's top runner came by default due to the summer injury to Kris Cruz, a sub 16 minute 5K runner. Cruz made his debut at the Glory Days Invitational, where his presence was immediately felt as he ran number two for the squad (16:38 5K) and helped the Cougars to a slim one point victory over Thomas Jefferson. If Cruz continues to work back into his old form and performs well on Saturday, it will be tough for Thomas Jefferson or Tucker to hold off the Cougars with the pack found behind Lang and Cruz.

Senior Stephen Best and sophomore James Phillips have ran exceptionally well this fall and have been running just ahead of or behind Cruz since his return to racing. Best finished 11th at the Northern Region Meet to earn All-Region honors and finished just ahead of Thomas Jefferson's number three, Kyle Smith. Best has a season best of 16:38 for the 5K (Octoberfest). Phillips ran a 15:39 on the Burke Lake course at districts and posted a 16:42 5K at Glory Days.

Rounding out Oakton's top seven, Kevin Meehan (16:01 Burke Lake), Jason Vick (16:10 Burke Lake), and Chris O'Keefe (16:22 Burke Lake) are the three that may end up being the difference makers in giving their squad the edge over the other contending teams. Vick and O'Keefe, sixth and seventh runners for Oakton, are well ahead of the other contending teams' runners at those positions and give the Cougars some extra insurance that other teams do not have.

Westfield possesses the best one-two in the state with seniors David Groff and James Scheiner. Many have tried to break up this pair throughout the season, but few have been successful. The duo has helped lead Westfield to it's first state meet appearance in school history, despite a lagging back pack (#3-5) in comparision to Northern Region rivals Thomas Jefferson and Oakton. Groff and Scheiner have alternated between the number one and two spot all season for the Bulldogs. Groff has took home individual titles at the Monroe Parker Invitational and Glory Days Grill Invitational with a most recent runner-up finish to Landry at the Northern Region Meet. Groff posted a personal best 5K time of 15:53 in his Glory Days win as he defeated a very competitive field which included Northern Region champ Landry. With his performances this fall and his blistering closing speed as a 1:54 800 meter runner, Groff has to be considered as a darkhorse in the state individual title race. Meanwhile, Scheiner has not been but a few strides behind Groff and in some cases, ahead of his teammate. The Westfield senior was runner-up to Groff at Monroe Parker and runner-up to Landry at the Concorde District Meet, while taking the individual victory over the likes of Groff and Albemarle's Hari Mix at the Fork Union Invitational. The two will be expected to turn in single digit scoring cards for their team on Saturday, if they wish to see their team make it on the podium reserved for three.

Groff and Scheiner's efforts will all be in vain if they do not get better support from their reamining top five runners. The Buckland brothers, Andrew and Jonathan along with Jason Weiskopf have ran solid this fall with tremendous improvement from last year, but will need to dig deeper Saturday for the Bulldogs to run with the likes of Thomas Jefferson, Tucker, and Oakton. Westfield finished third at the Northern Region Meet with 87 points behind Thomas Jefferson and Oakton, but were actually winning the meet through their first two runners in Groff and Scheiner. Weiskopf (24th, 15:59), Andrew Buckland (28th, 16:04), and Jonathan Buckland (34th, 16:10) all had season best performances at regions, but also were beaten by Thomas Jefferson and Oakton's numbers three through five runners. Westfield will have to find a way to place these three runners ahead of the competition's last three scoring runners for Westfield to have a chance at cracking into the the top three at states.

Maggie Walker also performs come championships season and this year is no exception as the Green Dragons are coming off an impressive runner-up performance at the Central Region Meet. Maggie Walker is led by Central Region champion Daniel Howard, who has a strong chance of winning Saturday's individual state crown. Howard posted a 15:51 5K in his win at the regional meet, a faster time than what last year's state champion, Alex Tatu ran in his Central Region win. Howard actually ran 10 seconds faster on the same course the following weekend in a runner-up effort at the Colonial District Meet. Heading into this weekend's race as the #3 ranked runner in AAA, Howard is an excellent front runner for Maggie Walker. Making for one of the stronger first three runners for any team in the state behind Howard is seniors Rohan Patel and Andrew Stegmaier. The two have ran off each other all season to help push each other to perform at a consistent level. Patel posted a personal best time at the Central Region Meet with his eighth place finishing time of 16:25. Stegmaier was only three ticks behind at 16:28 for ninth place. Patel and Stegmaier have the potential to place in the top 25 at states as Stegmaier did it last year with a 24th place finish. The obstacle facing Maggie Walker's chances of cracking into the top three at states is found in their number four and five runners. While junior Joe Addison showed promise for the Green Dragons by posting a personal best time of 17:08 at the Central Region Meet, senior Matt Comet finished a ways back in a time of 17:37. Comet will have to drop his time closer to 17 minutes flat for Maggie Walker to have a chance to finish in the top three Saturday.

Midlothian, last year's state runner-up to Thomas Jefferson, and a top three finisher at the state meet for the past four years, is facing their toughest challenge to return to the podium this year after coming off of a disappointing third place finish at the Central Region Meet. The Trojans find themselves in a similar situation as Maggie Walker with a strong top three, but with a lagging number four and five.

The Trojans possess two runners with All-State caliber credentials in Billy Berlin and Ryan Witt. Berlin has had some strong runs this fall including a runner-up finish at the Great Meadows Invitational and a third place finish at the Central Region Meet this past Saturday(16:13 5K). Also, Berlin posted a personal best 5K of 16:08 at the Dominion District Meet in a runner-up finish. Berlin has the potential to finish well within the top 15 at Great Meadows.

Teammate Ryan Witt has run number one for Midlothian for most of the season, including a 16:01 5K district title win at the Dominion District Meet. However, Witt faltered in his last race at the Central Region Meet as he held the lead at the two mile mark, only to drop eight places in the final 1000 meters to finish 11th place with a time of 16:30. Despite the off race, Witt has bounced back from a similar situation before. Last year, Witt had a likewise disappointing finish at the regional meet, only to come back the next week strong to earn All-State honors with a 12th place finish.

If it was not for the great improvement from senior Pat Harding, Midlothian might not be in the position to reach the podium for the fifth consecutive year. Harding, who last fall never broke 17 minutes in the 5K and even lost to Midlothian girls' top runner Amanda Patterson in a 3200 meter race last spring, is coming off of his finest race yet at the Central Region Meet, where he finished 10th overall with a personal best time of 16:29. A duplicate performance from Harding Saturday will keep Midlothian in the team race.

Midlothian has always been a team to rely on it's strength in depth in it's past great teams, but this year it is the lack of depth that is hurting them. Running fourth and fifth for the Trojans is juniors Kurt Witt and Ryan Call. At the Central Region Meet, younger Witt was 28th at 17:20 and Call finished finished 32nd at 17:27. Both were times that put Midlothian too far back to beat regional foes Tucker and Maggie Walker, and if they perform at the same level this Saturday, the Northern Region teams will defeat them easily as well.

The team battle will be a battle for regional supremacy with the Northern Region and Central Region locking heads with three teams each who have the potential to excel at the state meet. Many of these six teams have yet to face each other all season. Only Westfield and Maggie Walker have raced against one another at the Fork Union Invitational. Besides that encounter, the top three teams from each region have yet to face one of three from the other region. The fact that these teams have eluded competition with one another all season makes for lots of questions and speculation on how Saturday's race will turn out. All of that speculation will come to an end when the gun is fired at 1:45 PM at Great Meadows on Saturday.

The individual title race is just as murky as the team fight for the state crown. It was not as murky a week ago prior to the Eastern Region Meet. Green Run senior Steven Walters had been holding onto the #1 state ranking for quite some time and had remained undefeated the entire season. Entering his regional race, Walters was coming off his season's best run with a 15:25 5K clocking in his district title win, which his time was and still is the fastest time posted in the state so far this season. However, the week heading into his regional meet, Walters developed a bacterial infection in his stomach which caused an ulcer and severe stomach cramps to go along with it. Not racing at 100%, Walters was dealt his first loss of the season at the hands of Woodside junior Derrick Robbins, as Robbins pulled away in the last mile to win the Eastern Region title in a time of 15:27. Walters finished 20 seconds later to take a runner-up finish in a time of 15:47. Walters was placed on medication this week and it remains to be seen how quickly he'll be able to recover in time for Saturday's race. However, if he returns to the top shape he was at prior to his regional race, he will be tough to beat as he also has experience on his side as last year's state runner-up to Tatu.

Walters' sickness does not discredit the race that Robbins ran at the Eastern Region Meet. Even if Walters was healthy, it be hard to say he would have still defeated Robbins as Robbins scorched the Newport News Park 5K course with a 15:27 5K, only two seconds slower than Walter's season best. Robbins also has extra motivation on his side to prove all of those doubters from last fall, who called Robbins a "burnout" after running poor races at his regional and state meet. Robbins has been consistent all fall as he has ran under 16 minutes for every major invitational or championship race he has competed in this season. Another sub 16 minute performance this Saturday might be all Robbins needs to win his first ever state title.

Northwest Regional champion Hari Mix of Albemarle has looked more impressive race after race this season after a slow start to his senior season of cross country. After a third place finish at the Fork Union Invitational and fourth place finish at the William & Mary Invitational, Mix has turned his season around to show everyone that he is capable of winning Saturday's state title. At the Albemarle Invitational, Mix posted the state's third fastest time and a personal best clocking with 15:35 win over AA #1 ranked Justin Hatch of Christiansburg. Following his win at Albemarle, Mix took easy victories at the Commonwealth District and Northwest Region meets in preparation for Saturday's state race.

Northern Region champ Christo Landry of Thomas Jefferson, like Mix, has looked stronger in each race as he nears state meet competition. After being defeated by Westfield's David Groff at the Monroe Parker Invitational and Glory Days Grill Invitational, Landry has evened the score with Groff with two recents victories in district and regional meet competition. With two sub 15 clockings at Burke Lake under his belt from his wins at the Concorde District Meet (14:55) and Northern Region Meet (14:59), Landry looks ready to make a run at snabbing his first ever state title.

Unlike Walters, Robbins, Mix, and Landry, Maggie Walker senior Daniel Howard was not given much pre-season notice as he had not truly broken in among the state's elite ranks. However, this fall Howard has quickly changed that with an impressive senior season of races. At a October 1st Pole Green meet, Howard broke Alex Tatu's course record with a 15:46 win over Tucker's Chapa. Howard really turned some heads at the William & Mary Invitational three days after his Pole Green race, where he outkicked Robbins for a runner-up finish to Walters with a time that converted to a 15:01 for three miles from the shortened 2.88 mile course. Using the momentum from his William & Mary race, Howard took assault on the Pole Green Park course again. At the Colonial District Meet, Howard posted a personal best time of 15:41 in a runner-up effort behind Chapa. Howard then got revenge on Chapa the following weekend at the Central Region Meet as he earned his first regional title with a 15:51 win. It is easy for many to overlook Howard considering that he really has not emerged as an elite runner till this fall, but those who do doubt Howard's ability will be quickly mistaken on Saturday. Howard has proved his legitimacy this fall with wins over the likes of Robbins, Mix, and Chapa. He is the darkhorse that should not be a darkhorse for the state title to be contested on Saturday.

J.R. Tucker's Michael Chapa is another runner who has came onto the scene only just recently. At the first ever Maymont Cross Country Festival, the Sudani Chapa gave Walters all he could handle for the entire race until the last 200 meters, where Walters was able to pull away from the up and coming star Chapa. Excluding his battle with Walters at Maymont, Chapa's biggest battles this season have come district rival Howard as the two have pushed one each other to another level in their running with their multiple encounters. At the Colonial District Meet, Chapa was able to get the better of Howard as well as the Pole Green Park course record with a time of 15:36, the fourth fastest time in the state. The following weekend at the Central Region Meet, Chapa ran with Howard until the final quarter mile where Howard's superior closing speed played to his advantage with a five second victory over Chapa. Chapa finished in with a time of 15:56 for regional runner-up honors. His lone weakness appears to be his lack of a finishing kick. If Chapa can dig deep Saturday and find a strong kick of his own, he may be able to pull out the win.

Chapa may need to ask Westfield senior David Groff if he could borrow a little bit of his closing speed for Saturday's race. No runner in contention for the state title has more leg speed than Groff, the fastest returning 800 meter runner in the state with a 1:54 personal best. Groff has blossomed into more of a middle distance runner this fall as he has taken his track talents to the cross country courses. Groff came into this season in top fit shape as shown in his early win at the Monroe Parker Invitational and has held strong ever since then. Groff's finest run was at the Glory Days Invitational, where he posted a personal best 5K time of 15:53 on a moderately challenging Bull Run Park course as he defeated eventual Northern Region champ Landry. Groff took runner-up honors to Landry at the Northern Region Meet, but will be looking to move up one on Landry in the tally sheet for this season (2-2 currently) as well as test himself against the state's best. If he is anywhere near the lead when he enters the gate into the finishing stretch, all other competitors ahead of him better have a rocket in their behind ready to go to hold off his powerful kick.

While realistically, the six previously mentioned athletes are the only ones that have a probable shot at the state individual title, there are other individuals who should be definite top 15 all-state contenders and also have the capability to do even greater things on Saturday. Runners to look out for are James Scheiner (Westfield), Steve Tobin (West Springfield), Chris Mocko (Thomas Jefferson), Adam Hutton (Western Branch), Billy Berlin (Midlothian), Shane Young (Herndon), Bryce Iverson (Forest Park), Richard Andrews (Douglas Freeman), Patterson Wilhem (E.C. Glass), Jonathan Turnbull (Thomas Dale), Tona Amatu (Warwick), Michael Disilvestro (Massaponax), Ryan Witt (Midlothian), and Jay Wyss (J.R. Tucker).