The NXN boys race last ran on a frozen track in 2009. Colorado Track XC file photo.
Just a few thoughts on Colorado's NXN entries and prospects for Saturday. Hopefully everyone in Portland has put their devices away until after race time...
1. Cerake Geberkidane - I like his chances if he can keep things under control at least the first mile. But, he can't run it like he did at NXR-SW (building a 22-second lead at two miles that diminished to five seconds at the end of the race) and expect to win in Portland. The last circuit at Portland Meadows is simply too taxing.
2. Elise Cranny - I feel very, very good about her chances. That's not intended as a hint of a suggestion that either Baxter or Efraimson are ripe for the picking. I simply think Cranny has a gear she hasn't shown us yet this season. I would not want Cranny on my heels with 400 meters to go.
3. Fort Collins - It's a very experienced team, and there are very few coaches in Chris Suppes' league when it comes time to get a team ready to put a maximum kind of show on the course. These girls have been here before and aren't likely to make any foolish mistakes on this course. Lauren Gregory has a few big-time races under her belt as well, even though she hasn't run here. A top-five finish seems very possible for this group.
4. Monarch - You can bet Kent Rieder hasn't forgotten the lesson of 2010 where Monarch got out too conservatively and never really got into the race. Figure on a stronger start for Monarch this time around, but it's a delicate balance between too hard and too easy. That said, a little too hard is better than a little too easy at this race, and probably all the more so when you go seven deep as well as Monarch does. It's hard to say whether a frozen course favors or hinders Monarch, but this is a team with top-ten potential.
5. Katie Rainsberger - Rainsberger was 13th last year in the slop. It's hard for me to see her doing worse on a frozen course, but the field is tougher this year than last time around. Breaking into the top 10 would be huge, though it's definitely not a given.
6. Bailey Roth - Remember last summer? The US #2 all-time high school 2000 steeple mark? Roth may be back to that kind of form. He looked very good at NXR-SW. We'll see how he takes to the cold and the crowded field, but the potential is enormous here.
7. Fayetteville-Manlius - There may not be a better opportunity for someone to pick this team off for five years in either direction. Anyone setting sights on breaking the string has to believe this is the year. F-M has proven to be mudders extraordinaire, but they are unproven--at least at this level--when it's a fast, frozen track.
8. Course Records - The course record for girls is toast. The course record for boys is in serious jeopardy--it depends on how the race develops.