MileStat.com's predictions for Virginians at the 2013 Foot Locker South Regional. We are confident in projecting three girls to San Diego in Caroline Alcorta, Hannah Christen, and Allie Klimkiewicz along with one boys qualifier in Louis Colson. The two that we are 50/50 on their chances to make it to nationals are Lake Braddock senior Katy Kunc in the girls' race and 6A state champion Jack Stoney of Oakton in the boys' race.
Girls Predictions - We predict that three girls from Virginia will advance onto the national race in San Diego with three runners familiar with one another in former Northern Region runners Caroline Alcorta of West Springfield, Hannah Christen of Lake Braddock, and Allie Klimkiewicz of Oakton. Alcorta and Klimkiewicz are returning Foot Locker finalists from 2012, while Christen qualified individually for Nike Cross Nationals last fall, so all three runners have experience in performing in this high pressure race to advance onto nationals or not. Alcorta could challenge for the individual title and expect her to finish no worse than top 3 if she choses to run hard enough to qualify, but she want to join elite company and become only the third Virginian girl in meet history after the likes of Erin Keogh and Aurora Scott to have broken 17 minutes for 5K at Foot Locker South. Predicting Alcorta to win the race with a time in the low 16:50's. Meanwhile, Christen and Klimkiewicz look to finish somewhere in the middle of the top 10 in places 4th through 7th and not sweat out a 10th and final national berth finish. Both have run season best 5K times around 17:20s to 17:30s this season. We think both will get under 17:20 with PR times on Saturday.
Katy Kunc is the most likely of Virginians beyond the top three favorites from Virginia to sneak into that 10th spot. She may try to run with teammate Christen and work off another runner that she has raced often in Klimkiewicz as well as recently beat at the state meet. Kunc has run just under 18 minutes, but she should be ready to go further into the 17 minute range possibly down into the 17:30's and definitely 17:40s in the seeded. A time even in the 17:30's might not be enough and find her among that first 5 out around 11th through 15th place. We believe that All-South Region honors is now top 30 finishers, which a good pack of Virginians could find themselves among that top tier of the field including Molly Breidenbaugh of Trinity, Katharine Benfer of Mills Godwin, and Erin Saunders of Jefferson Forest. Breidenbaugh has run under 18 minutes before in cross country and track, while Benfer and Saunders are looking forward to the opportunity to see if they challenge that time.
X-factor entrants from Virginia because of their incredible talent and mile times hovering around 4:50 are Cave Spring's Katie Fortner and James W. Robinson's Macey Schweikert. Neither had the state meet races that they were looking for with Fortner finishing 5th in the Group 3A race and Schweikert dropping out of the 6A race, but might thrive on the closest thing to a track in a cross country course at McAlpine Greenway Park.
Boys Predictions: Not as enthused about the chances of Virginia boys to qualify multiply individuals. We feel very confident about Thomas Edison senior and the state's top ranked runner throughout the fall in Louis Colson moving on and also believe that he is being overlooked and undervalued by many as a potential individual race champion. He ran times rivaling last year's South Region champion and course record breaker Sean McGorty for much of the season, but steamed off a little bit from the exact same path of McGorty's unstoppable 2012 cross country season, but Colson has shown that he is ready to run well under 15 minutes at Foot Locker South with swift times on harder courses this fall. Not ready to say Colson for the win, but like a top 3 finish from him and a PR time around 14:45.
The next best Virginian national meet hopefuls appear to be 6A state champion Jack Stoney of Oakton and 3A state champion Andrew Hunter of Loudoun Valley. A top 10 finish would be incredible for a sophomore Hunter and build up his lore and hype for his future to become a potential 3-time champion, but we think he might be a year away from such a feat and top 15 or top 20 showing would be a more realistic goal and set himself up well with confidence to be a national qualifier in 2014. Stoney being the senior and running at his best in timely fashion at season's end to separate himself from his 6A state champion builds his momentum and case that he also belongs among the top 10 in the South region. Stoney will need to make around a 30 second time drop from his last-race at McAlpine mid-season at the Wendy's Invitational with a 15:32 performance. 15:00's is usually a safe bet to qualify for nationals at Foot Locker South, but may need to even go under 15 minutes with the depth of this year's field. Predict Stoney to be in places 10 through 15 and Hunter in places 15 through 20.
Look for someone among this pack of names in Atlee's Nathaniel Hall, Chantilly's Ryan McGorty, Deep Run's Matthew Novak, The Potomac School's Hale Ross, Maggie Walker's Alex Fleckenstein, Robert E. Lee's Biruk Amare, and George C. Marshall's Mackenzie Haight to have a breakthrough race to end their cross country season with a time in the 15:10's and a top 20 finish in the seeded race at Foot Locker South. Then one or two among that same group to finish among the top 30 for All-Region in the 15:20's. Hall and Ross have probably been the most steady performances of that bunch. Haight has already run that fast for 5K on the track, while the juniors McGorty and Novak could position themselves well for national berths as seniors with a big PR and top 30 finish this weekend.
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Foot Locker South Regional (McAlpine Park, Charlotte)
Schedule
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8:30 - Boys Freshman
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9:00 - Boys Sophomore
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9:30 - Girls Junior/Senior
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10:00 - Girls Championship
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10:40 - Boys Championship
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11:10 - Girls Freshman/Sophomore
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11:40 - Boys Senior
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12:10 - Boys Junior
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12:55 - Boys & Girls 11-12
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1:15 - Boys & Girls 13-14